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I mentioned earlier this week I wanted to talk dynasty trading. This is where I’ve landed after 30+ years of doing this & is really an overview. This will likely be multiple threads over the next few days not one Titanic sized thread. I'll talk establishing values in 2nd thread.
To start off, I basically break trades into 3 categories
Blind Trading
Preemptive Trading
Insider Trading
Blind Trading
Preemptive Trading
Insider Trading
Blind trading isn’t truly blind, but it’s only one side of the ledger - based solely on your values, your feelings, your goals/strategies & your assessment of the other owner’s skill level & roster.
Blind trading is slathered in uncertainty & can be the most unsettling especially for dynasty players w/limited experience. BUT blind trading is a major key to building a data base on owner tendencies & moving toward Insider Trading.
I think there are two keys to blind trading successfully & smoothing out the unnerving edge it can bring. First, I recommend crafting deals w/a player (or players) you’re comfortable keeping in order to sharpen your skills.
Why do that? Pressure increases substantially when you’re focused on moving players w/a perceived limited buy/sell window. If the goal is to build a comfort level when trading, initially working w/players ur comfortable keeping allows u to focus on the mechanics, not the emotions
Second – and one of my favorite strategies – send volume offers w/varied returns. Identifying multiple targets of interest helps mitigate the feelings of uncertainty. And the feedback u receive helps you profile for future negotiations.
Preemptive trading is about beating others to the punch. Being active with a trend, a spike in player production or even responding with an offer to something said in chat about a particular player. You take limited info and act on it, but the decision is driven by some insight.
Insider trading is the sweet spot. It limits the indecision & adds layers of confidence (at least constructing offers & negotiating). Deals may not work out, but sending them is easier because you know the audience has a history of being receptive or at least interested.
Personally, I look for trends/patterns in draft history, waiver acquisitions, completed trades & trade negotiations and log these trends as data. The idea is very similar to identifying a “tell” in poker only it’s done over a longer time period with a wider range of interaction.
Some folks overreact to off field issues, others to shiny new toys, some devalue age and some resort to overpaying for key pieces during a title run. Having that insight takes some of the guess work out of crafting offers by spotlighting the value and the trade partner.
Last 2 thoughts. I talk a lot about profiling league mates & their tendencies. It's also critical to critique ur own skills & weaknesses. The resources available can be sensory overload, but if you identify a specific area to improve, u can limit the static & sharpen any skill.
And being respectful matters. How you interact w/your league-mates is important. You may think it's all about sending offers & value, but trading effectively long term requires building relationships & communication within a league.
So bottom line, trading is an essential tool every dynasty owner needs to be comfortable with. Some use it more than others, but it's still a necessity. My plan it to do another thread in the very near future on how to judge value/craft an opening or counter offer.
Again this was just an overview. If you have some specific suggestions or questions, hit me up - I'm usually around on the weekends. I'd certainly like to help some folks get more comfortable trading during this off season.
