Read on Twitter
North Carolina party registration changes over past week
Rep -> something else
3,007
Dem -> something else
667
Most of these changes are to Unaffiliated
Rep -> Unaffiliated
2,650
Dem -> Unaffiliated
484
Rep -> something else
3,007
Dem -> something else
667
Most of these changes are to Unaffiliated
Rep -> Unaffiliated
2,650
Dem -> Unaffiliated
484
These statewide changes appear to confirm anecdotes of persons changing their party registration https://www.newsweek.com/swing-states-republicans-change-party-registration-wake-capitol-riot-1561292
Hard to gauge the significance of these party registration changes. On one hand, they're a small proportion of the 8.2 million NC registered voters. On the other, changing party registration is not a common thing, so they may represent stronger undercurrents
Furthermore, list-maintenance has picked up following the election, and registration cancellations are falling more heavily on registered Democrats. Purges in last week:
Republican: 8,962
Democrat: 18,728
I want to stress this is likely routine activity, not nefarious
Republican: 8,962
Democrat: 18,728
I want to stress this is likely routine activity, not nefarious
So, at this point in time in NC, it is true more Republicans than Democrats are changing their party registration, but it is a relatively small amount. We'll want to watch cumulative effects, particularly as people update their registrations while visiting motor vehicle offices
Pennsylvania party voter registration changes in week 1/11 to 1/18
Rep -> Dem 1,198
Dem -> Rep 482
Like NC numbers (see thread), there appears to be something going on, but it is relatively small to the 8.9 million registered voters in PA https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/VotingElectionStatistics.aspx
Rep -> Dem 1,198
Dem -> Rep 482
Like NC numbers (see thread), there appears to be something going on, but it is relatively small to the 8.9 million registered voters in PA https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/VotingElectionStatistics.aspx
(More) Pennsylvania party voter registration changes in week 1/11 to 1/18 (see the thread for more info)
Rep -> Other 2,055
Dem -> Other 350
Adding party switches
Rep -> Something else 3,253
Dem -> Something else 832
Rep -> Other 2,055
Dem -> Other 350
Adding party switches
Rep -> Something else 3,253
Dem -> Something else 832
NC Party registration changes in the prior week continue to see more Republicans changing their registration. Most are to unaffiliated status
Dem -> something else 631
Rep -> something else 2,850
Dem -> Unaffiliated 440
Rep -> Unaffiliated 2,505
Dem -> something else 631
Rep -> something else 2,850
Dem -> Unaffiliated 440
Rep -> Unaffiliated 2,505
Past two weeks of NC party registration changes
Dem -> something else 1,298
Rep -> something else 5,857
Dem -> Unaffiliated 924
Rep -> Unaffiliated 5,155
Dem -> something else 1,298
Rep -> something else 5,857
Dem -> Unaffiliated 924
Rep -> Unaffiliated 5,155
It does seem like something is happening, perhaps in response to the attempted insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. We'll get new weekly PA data soon, and a number of state monthly reports next week, that may provide a more complete picture
PA party registration changes in the past week continue the trend of more Republican switching their party registration
Dem -> Something else 656
Rep -> Something else 2,535
Most are not fully changing party
Dem -> other 241
Rep -> other 1,720
Dem -> Something else 656
Rep -> Something else 2,535
Most are not fully changing party
Dem -> other 241
Rep -> other 1,720
PA year-to-date party registration changes
Dem -> Something else 3,277
Rep -> Something else 9,891
Most are not fully changing party
Dem -> other 1,184
Rep -> other 6,415
Dem -> Something else 3,277
Rep -> Something else 9,891
Most are not fully changing party
Dem -> other 1,184
Rep -> other 6,415
Changing party registration is not a typical behavior. There are likely undercurrents present that we cannot observe with these data. We should get more states' data next week when states provide monthly reports
But also, these changes are small relative to the 8.9 million registered voters in PA. For this phenomenon to have an impact, we'd need to see sustained changes over months
