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I've been up since 2am. Can't fall asleep so why not do a deep dive on the value of top draft picks. When we discuss tanking, we focus too much on the losing aspect. In reality, we're *really* just talking about getting a high pick. If you can get one another way, go for it!
Let's start with what kind of player is required to win a championship. All-Star? Not enough. All-NBA? Again, not enough. At least 3x All-NBA? Now we're talking. In the last 40 years, no team has MADE the NBA Finals without a player who had at least 3 All-NBA appearances.
So where do you find these championship players (≥3 All-NBA selections) that have been a necessary part of EVERY SINGLE TEAM to have made (not even win!) the NBA Finals in the last 40 years?
Here's a bar graph showing the number of championship players (≥3 All-NBA selections) by draft slot from 1979-2013. The most recently drafted player to enter this prestigious group was Giannis in 2013, which is why I stopped with 2013. Started with 1979 because I like Bird.
Here's the same data, but presented with a focus on groupings of draft pick slots. In the last 34 years, there have been 34 top-5 picks that became one of these coveted championship players. THIRTY FOUR! An average of one per year! LOOK AT THE DIFFERENCE.
There will always be examples to argue against obsessing over a top pick. What about Giannis at 15? Kawhi at 15? Jokic (who will make his 3rd All-NBA this year) at 41?What about top picks that busted? What about teams that picked high repeatedly and never got anyone?
The fact is that if you are interested in acquiring one of these championship players through the draft and you have any interest in maximizing your odds of landing one of these players, you should prioritize a top pick. Period. Is it a guarantee? No, but it's your best chance.
Again, all of this is predicated on the idea that your goal is to WIN an NBA championship. If you just want to be good, there are many other ways to go about it. Building a championship team (esp. in a small market) requires greater focus on who actually matters.
