There are many many problems with the Ofqual consultation on 2021 exams (don't blame them - they've been asked to do something impossible). But the fundamental conceptual problem is summed up in this paragraph.

It's true that teachers' can't know a hypothetical but equally if they actually assess at the level students are currently performing then, logically, grades would need to be much lower across the whole system given time lost. But avoiding that is why they cancelled exams!

If teachers *only* go on evidence of what students can actually do then this cohort would be unfairly marked down.

But if they go on what might have happened with no pandemic, well then they're just guessing.

It's an impossible problem to solve.

Which is why we should all stop worrying about creating the impossible unicorn grades and just make sure all these students have a good follow-on destination that will allow them to move on with the next stage of their lives when this misery is over.

The propose system creates a monumental about of work for teachers; and puts them in the firing line of disgruntled students/parents, for no obvious benefit whatsoever.

Good thread on this and other issues with the consultation https://twitter.com/jemmaths/status/1350415279940128770?s=19