#Bitcoin & Markets update Jan-16

1/n

tl;dr: still think bottom is in, HL as expected is building, USDT FUD will blow over (=boost), lots of doom charts (bearish sentiment), alts very strong (DeFi, DOT, LINK), expect to build a base between 34-37K

#Bitcoin $ETH $BTC

1/n Bitcoin could not hold 36.5K but is building a base at 34-37K

Alt Season
It’s currently the first phase of alt season. This is the phase in which BTC is not done yet.

3/n I expect BTC to still make that leg higher to 46K at minimum. Therefore alts vs. BTC will move like ebb and flow and BTC dominance could still rise when BTC pumps. But dominance will drop when alts catch up.

4/n Eventually BTC will find a range and that’s the moment alts will really fly and the strategy to slowly start flipping your alts back for BTC is starting.

Watch out for the Turtle BC chart to reach 60 and over.
https://www.turtlebc.com/tools/bull_percentage/btc

5/n What am I seeing?

-BTC found support at 34K and is building a base
-USDT FUD and MT. Gox FUD could not dump the market
-Funding got high yesterday but has mostly been reset (bullish!)
-Alts keep performing very well
-Bearish sentiment, doom charts on CT (= bullish)

6/n FUD

As expected the USDT FUD is blowing over. There will not be any news soon, the market will move on.

Suggest to follow this guy for real insights in Tether: @paoloardoino

7/n Furthermore, here’s a good thread on different sorts of FUD topics over the years and how BTC behaves around it.

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1348347794302459904?s=20

Don’t be shaken out, be on the right side of this and be the one with strong hands.

8/n To add to the above, FUD can have a negative impact however it can also work as a booster when the people that get shaken out realize that they’ve been played and they FOMO back in.

9/n We saw this around 10K in Sep / Oct with the Bitmex, Kucoin, Okex FUD. BTC did not gave in and broke out.

An important sign for me is how BTC is handling FUD. If BTC stays strong there’s a high probability BTC will make a significant move higher the following period.

10/n What’s next? (Scenario’s 1/3)

I give most weight to BTC building a base at 34K and ranging the coming week between 34-40K.
BTC could even drop a bit lower and do the same.

BTC is currently forming a sym triangle.

11/n (Scenario’s 2/3)

As long as alts keep performing well I see this as a consolidation for BTC and it will eventually break out to new highs

Scenario 1: 80% probability bottom is in, BTC will range a few days / weeks and breaks out to new ATH

12/n What’s next? (Scenario’s 3/3)

Scenario 2: 20% probability this was the bull trap to golden pocket Fibonacci resistance and we head towards 30K and potentially make a lower low

13/n What am I watching?

-BTC building a base, dips get bought
-Don’t want to see a sustained dip below 32.5K
-FUD blowing over and not impacting the market significantly
-Alts need to keep showing strength
-Funding not getting to extreme

14/14 Closing off

All in all, my view that the bottom is in has not changed. I’m seeing a lot of strength in the market

Have a good weekend guys!

#Bitcoin $ETH $BTC