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I wanted to do a full post but I'm running out of time so will note a couple of things about Salah here. A few weeks ago he was the de facto triple captain choice but now seems to not even be most people's captain choice for GW19
On the face of it, this makes some sense after three poor FPL scores against weaker opponents: WBA (2), NEW (3), and SOU (2). There is a suggestion he also looks "off the pace" too, though I do worry if that is a little bit of confirmation bias based on those poor scores
I like to look at the metric I track on the site (xG +/-) which tries to tease out how players are performing without being overly skewed by opponents. Let's look at Mo for the season:
There is some decline for sure, after a sea of bright orange (good!) and more lately a few blues (bad!). However, recall that against TOT he scored, and he notched a brace in 3 mins against CRY so I assume you weren't worried about those games?
The last three aren't great - 1.0 xG +/- in 3 games means he was projected to score one goal more than the "average" player managed against those same teams. Fine, but hardly elite.
But, he had 3 game stretches where he notched just ~1.0 xG +/- several times before
But, he had 3 game stretches where he notched just ~1.0 xG +/- several times before
Including those early weeks after the Leeds game, and again in GW10-13 after he returned from COVID. Yet, this past run was the only time he failed to hit the back of the net for 3 straight games. Some see that as a sign of unique poor form, but I'd argue it's perhaps random
The WBA game was arguably poor, with a poor result and poor underlying numbers (0.2 xG). That said, Son (0.4 xG), De Bruyne (0.2) and Rashford (0.5) all didn't perform particularly well either, and none of that group found the net in the corresponding game.
Against Newcastle, Salah was actually very good in terms of xG (0.9): the second best midfielder performance of the season vs NEW (after Bruno's penalty assisted 1.0 xG effort). De Bruyne (0.5 xG), Sterling (0.2), Kane (1.6), Werner (0.4) all also failed to score in this game
0.4 xG against SOU again isn't great, but not terrible. Again, the likes of De Bruyne (0.1 xG) Mane (0.7), Rashford (0.4), Grealish (0.5), and Kane (0.7) have put up comparable numbers, though in this case a couple did manage to score.
As a comparison, if we take the corresponding fixtures (WBA, NEW, SOU) for De Bruyne and look at xG we get:
Salah: 0.0, 0.8, 0.2
De Bruyne: 0.2, 0.5, 0.1
Of course, KDB has a better assist potential, although over three games he only lead 1.0 xA to 0.4.
Salah: 0.0, 0.8, 0.2
De Bruyne: 0.2, 0.5, 0.1
Of course, KDB has a better assist potential, although over three games he only lead 1.0 xA to 0.4.
This of course doesn't explain everything and a steady decline in results CAN be a sign of a lack of form, fatigue etc. But, for a player like Salah who has proven so much, you have to be really careful not to equate "form" with "FPL points"
I think the recent lack of returns, plus MUN's uptick in results gives enough doubt to *reconsider* the triple captain: it is by no means a slam dunk pick, as it might be if LIV had WHU's GW19 fixtures and Salah was in unarguably good form.
De Bruyne, of course, is also almost always a good pick too, and his fixtures look good on paper, so no criticism of the TC there either. But, I wanted to note that while decisions can go different ways, just make sure you are basing it on the right thing
A concrete plan on where else to use the Triple Captain, a belief in MCI (or lack of belief in Palace) are reasons to look elsewhere. Feeling disappointed that Salah didn't haul against WBA and thus assuming he's out of form, is not a great reason to change your plan though
