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My UFC hot takes for #UFConABC1
Holloway v Kattar - Think this is generally a pretty close fight. Holloway's favorite upside is usually atleast partially a function of him being able to pull away on output, but I'm confident Kattar can keep up for the most part.
Holloway v Kattar - Think this is generally a pretty close fight. Holloway's favorite upside is usually atleast partially a function of him being able to pull away on output, but I'm confident Kattar can keep up for the most part.
I like Kattar decision out at the +300s since I think we're generally getting a very competitive, high-volume striking match. Kattar power edge, Holloway a bit more diversity. Was tempted by GTD -190, but seems a bit foolhardy when I'd expect 300+ SS landed over 25 mins.
Even if each Significant Strike only has a 0.1% chance of causing a stoppage, that pretty quickly adds up to make the GTD price about accurate and you never know with cuts/Holloway's chin maybe fading a bit.
Condit/Brown - Old man fight. I think Brown's actually the more functional fighter at this point, it's just he's likely only got room to make one or two big mistakes due to his durability being a thing of the past. Condit seems disinterested and meh, generally.
Kind of expecting Brown to look great for 3-4 minutes, then Condit to pull a stoppage against the run of play in like early round 2 despite looking shoddy. Do think Brown wins if it goes to a decision. Condit against McGee looked disinterested till he got the knockdown early R1
Rooting for Brown per favoritism. Think his game's more functional still, but definitely feeling the 'Condit looks shit for a round and then lands a mid-strength punch that kills Brown dead and/or changes the whole complexion of the fight'
Li-Ponzinibbio - IMO price has to be assuming that Ponzinibbio is 100% the guy that he's been historically, since I think Leech +250 is where I'd price him against Ponz at Ponz's best. Ponz good fighter with good tools, but I don't think he's a reliable enough grappler
To consistently cover the -300 against Leech, who'll generally swing with you if you give him a striking match. Also significant downside risk on Ponz due to the multi-year layoff, injuries and the rest. IMO Leech is worth a small swing just since I think the 'worst case'
is essentially a fair bet at +275, and there's a lot of room for 'Well Ponz sucks now' which'll make Leech look hindsight great value.
Chirico-Buckley: IMO price here's in stupid territory. Yeah, Chirico's 0-3 in his last 3 but it's been against guys of about the same tier as Buckley and each one of those fights has been incredibly close. Buckley's great fun, but I don't think he can keep his own pace
And Chirico will land strikes if you come for him consistently. He just tends to have issues with the sort of outside-striking tepidness that Buckley will not do. Buckley -150 due to combo of 'will likely have the aggression optics' and power edge sure... but -300 is silly.
Todorovic-Soriano - Think Todorovic's game is better developed/trust him more in deep waters, but good chance that R1's just the pair slugging eachother in the face and I think Soriano's probably the bigger hitter whilst fresh.
Entering on Todorovic after a round potentially a good spot, but really just meathead mid-tier MW shitfest
Imavov-Hawes: Not especially big on either of these guys. Hawes seems fragile in a few ways, Imavov's probably more skilled but lacks the same level of athleticism. Took some early + Imavov since I know the MMA market would focus on the '-Ov' bit of his name instead of the French
But in all seriousness, Imavov's better put-together as a striker and Hawes is fairly 'singular moment of explosion in R1' or bust
Edwards-Yanan:
Felipe-Tafa: Fairly interested in Felipe as a mid-tier HW gatekeeper. Did like he seemed to have done actual tape for the Castro fight (Dialed in well on the legkicks), which is a rarity for heavyweight along with having solid output despite his spheroid nature.
Tafa is a UFC 1 tier grappler, regional tape of his is hilariously sloppy. Fuck you Juan Adams for not immediately shooting a single leg like you've done in prettymuch every other career fight. Felipe sub probably weirdly live, but hard to rely on.
Otherwise think Felipe should just kind of pull it out on busyness, combination punching and grit.
Zawada-Emeev: Vaguely tempted by the ITD, but I'm sure Emeev will categorically refuse to finish an exhausted Zawada who'll constantly be spamming low-percentage submission from the bottom and bumrushing him on the feet. Zawada generally very conducive to ITDs, though.
Expecting great scenes of Emeev passing to mount then retreating to full guard where he feels more comfortable.
Moras-Melo: Don't really trust Moras much as a minute winner, and I think possibly people are too harsh on Melo for losing to a fairly strong list of opponents in her UFC run so far. Also largely depends if Moras comes to grapple or not, since Melo's getups are dire.
But if it stays standing I wouldn't be shocked to see Melo managing to pull off a strong out-hustling kind of performance to a contentious split decision.
Lingo-Kilburn: This fight should be on Tuesday Night contender. Got a great early price on the under, and hoping that we see a nice mutual biting of the mouthpieces in which I think Lingo's the harder hitter with the better experience.
