TROUBLESOME—The new variants that each have the tricky antibody-evading E484k mutation are what worries me.

This Science piece summarizes what I’ve been warning last 2 weeks w/ the new South Africa B1135 variant & new Brazil P1 variant. #COVID19 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines

2) indeed, @jbloom_lab showed that E484K also reduced the potency of convalescent sera from some donors 10-fold—although he is quick to add this does not necessarily mean the mutation would cause people’s immunity to the new strain to drop 10-fold.

3) To be clear, and variants evolved independently. But P.1 adds to the concerns because it appears to have hit on a similar constellation of mutations and has emerged in a place with a high level of immunity.

4) “Anytime you see the same mutations arising and starting to spread multiple times, in different viral strains across the world, that’s really strong evidence that there’s some evolutionary advantage to those mutations,” Bloom says.

5) here is my longer detailed thread on the worrisome P1 variant and Manaus Brazil situation. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1350039932090376193

6) That said, we know we can build a new mRNA vaccine within just 6 weeks if necessary. But probably won’t be necessary. The E484k mutation won’t change vaccine efficacy that much—a few small % points at most. And it doesn’t change what works against the virus... just vigilance.

7) I’m tired tonight, and I’m not trying to ever fear mongers. I just want people to understand the risks and protect themselves. Here is an earlier thread of WHAT WE SHOULD FOCUS ON meantime... https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1349811420960088075