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I want to share a story with everyone.
It's about a bookcase, a Tim Horton's, and a labour shortage facing small towns all over Ontario. And it's only going to get worse.
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#ldnont
#onpoli https://jordandetmers.medium.com/the-low-skill-labour-shortage-facing-rural-ontario-ceb452289829
It's about a bookcase, a Tim Horton's, and a labour shortage facing small towns all over Ontario. And it's only going to get worse.
/1
#ldnont
#onpoli https://jordandetmers.medium.com/the-low-skill-labour-shortage-facing-rural-ontario-ceb452289829
So before COVID hit, the lady and I went to get a bookcase for her retail store. We had ordered it from a Mennonite builder in Lucan. We left a bit early (read: I drove too fast), and we arrived early. Time for coffee, naturally.
So we dropped into the Tim's just down the street.
So we dropped into the Tim's just down the street.
When we walked in, I noticed a sign on the door.
"Attention customers. Due to staffing challenges, we will no longer be able to remain open 24 hours a day.
Our new hours are as follows..."
A Tim's not open 24 hours a day? What's the world coming to?
"Attention customers. Due to staffing challenges, we will no longer be able to remain open 24 hours a day.
Our new hours are as follows..."
A Tim's not open 24 hours a day? What's the world coming to?
Back when I was in university and worked at Subway to ease the financial burden of tuition, I split my time between 2 locations - both were open 24 hours a day. We never had a problem staffing the night shift. We paid a premium of $2/hour. Back then, $12.25/hr was pretty solid.
But those locations were in student-dense neighbourhoods. There was ample housing supply. Public transit. People could live close enough to walk to work.
This was obviously not the case in Lucan. You'd have to rent an apartment there or drive into town. It's simply not worth it.
This was obviously not the case in Lucan. You'd have to rent an apartment there or drive into town. It's simply not worth it.
This note was actually a canary in the coal mine.
Rural Ontario has been bleeding youth bodies for decades. We all know the brain drain is real. Has been since the 90's. Small towns were dying. All the young kids left for school, cities, and jobs.
Rural Ontario has been bleeding youth bodies for decades. We all know the brain drain is real. Has been since the 90's. Small towns were dying. All the young kids left for school, cities, and jobs.
But what the note indicates is that, in a small town just a 15 min drive north of a city of 400,000 people, a franchised coffee shop can't find anyone to work full-time nights. Here's why that is and will continue to be a big problem in the future
Right now, small towns are a mixed bag of residents. You've got your old folks who have lived there a while. You've got your Boomers + older Gen X'rs who can afford a bigger home and the commute. And now, you're getting your younger Gen X'rs and older Millennials buying new homes
Lucan is a mix of old homes & new builds. So are Ilderton, Dorchester, Thorndale, etc. Other small towns in Ontario are experiencing the same transformation. Who's losing out? Renters. People who work minimum wage jobs. People who can work the night shift at Tim's.
Why does this matter? Well, we've known for some time now that young people are fleeing big cities in record numbers. @MikePMoffatt wrote a great series of articles on the topic before it was cool (aka before COVID hit) https://mikepmoffatt.medium.com/ontarians-on-the-move-1-toronto-a5cbaf3b36ac
This article just came out today: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/younger-canadians-moving-away-from-big-cities-at-record-levels-1.1548707
The young people moving can afford to flee the city and buy homes. This is going to create a homogenous glob of well-to-do Millennials (and older) couples and families rushing to small towns. The service industries of these towns are going to be gutted, however.
There's nowhere for these folks to live, and the way prices are going up, there won't be enough affordable housing to sustain a localized low skill workforce. So what's going to happen?
1) They'll have to drive in
2) Biz owners need to raise wages
3) The businesses will close
1) They'll have to drive in
2) Biz owners need to raise wages
3) The businesses will close
So unless a lot of these new builds have granny suites built into them, small towns will need to look at their housing supply and incentivize developers or residents to build multi-family units or other housing styles geared to renters.
Ontario is going to be a very different province in a few years. I predict that mid-size cities will be booming, and small towns will be the next hot spots to live. Unfortunately, the service sectors in those towns will collapse unless something is done soon.
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