@ThyConsigliori asks:

So what's your call, Jim? What happens by or after January 20?

Trump doesn’t lose well. But how can he win this one?

Arrayed against him (in politics)
•A majority in the House
•A majority in the Senate
•The Democratic party
•The GOP establishment
Arrayed against him in the media
•The media technopoly
•The mainstream media
•Pollsters
•A manipulated public opinion

Others who should be neutral but are not
•The Courts
•The FBI
•The DOJ
•Probably the CIA
And others against him
•A very outspoken minority of the American people
•Antifa, BLM and other agitators
•A few nutjobs who support him but discredit him
•Chyna (who is behind all of it)
And in his favor?
•A clear majority of the American people
•A huge majority of Military personnel
•Some really smart people who are losing the ability to speak up
•Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò
•A few important figures like General Flynn
A wildcard: The JCS. They have sort of signaled their intent. Would they follow Trump even in a legal action to prevent Biden’s inauguration?

Another wildcard: Mike Pence

This is war. And Trump’s lines of communication have been cut. Hard to win a war under those circumstances.
What do I see as the possibilities?

Well, we cannot discount General McInerny’s Decalogue.

But I think Trump actually being inaugurated is a very long shot, and would probably incite a real insurrection.
I don’t think Trump would actively incite any kind of peaceful resistance. He got stung too badly (albeit unjustly) by the Capitol incident.

But I am sure he will go down fighting, and can win a few battles.
And the levers he will pull:
•Issue Pardons
•Declassify documents
•Primary people who betrayed him
•Heavily influence 2022 and 2024
•Run in 2024
•Perhaps start a viable third party
I think that after the inauguration, it will be clearly established that Trump won, but it will be too late.

I don’t think Trump can win in 2024 because the necessary reforms are unlikely to be enacted (given that reform is disadvantageous to the regnant Democrats).
I think the Republican establishment will cheat against him in the primaries, but if he gets nominated, the Democrats will again cheat and win.
You can follow @ThirdRailJim.
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