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Hi #epitwitter short summary here on @athutran's results on optimal vaccine allocation using real-time seroprevalence estimates, for MA and RI (abt 25% to 30% seroprev on Jan 1). Results exactly as expected: vaccinate high-mortality groups first 1/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.12.21249694v1
We don't know how quickly vaccine efficacy wanes, so our model explored 7 waning efficacy profiles. As long as we're looking at results 6 months out, thru mid-2021, waning profile has no effect. If we're looking at 2022, waning profile influences when boosters are needed 2/
Flu models sometimes show it is optimal to vaccinate high-contact groups first, esp w endpoints far into the future. But for a pathogen w IFR>5% in some age/risk groups, it is best to offer ppl the direct benefit of vaccination & not the indirect benefit of vaccinating others. 3/
Vaccine rollout is going slower than expected; our model assumes >25% coverage by March which may not be possible. If vaccine rollout speeds up next month, we may be able to save 400 lives in RI and 3000 lives in MA with a smooth, risk-focused, organized campaign in Feb/Mar 4/
Obviously, it is urgent to vaccinate very quickly now, before a high-transmissibility variants establishes in New England. RI and MA are likely to cross the "infected+vaccinated" 50% mark in Feb/March, but this will not be enough if a more transmissible variants arrives soon. 5/
Vaccinating known sero-negatives only, i.e. excluding individuals who had PCR-confirmed COVID-19 in the past 12 months, has some benefit but not much. Avoiding vaccinating sero-negatives results in 1% to 2% fewer hospitalizations and deaths through June 30 2021. 6/
Thanks @athutran @nathanwikle Ephraim Hanks @RIHEALTH @BillHanage @Fuhan_Yang @HaiderInam @ScottLeighow @EmilyStrongPSU @JustinPritcha19 Philip Chan for all the hard work over the past 10 months. 7/
Typo, apologies, tweet 6 above should read "Avoiding vaccinating *sero-positives* results in 1% to 2% fewer hospitalizations and deaths through June 30 2021." 8/
