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There was chatter that Abbas would sign today. But given past dashed hopes, you believe it when you see it. This comes after Hamas and Fatah agreed in July to move forward https://twitter.com/h_lovatt/status/1278719023526674432?s=20. And then in December Hamas softened its positions https://twitter.com/h_lovatt/status/1346785780757368832?s=20 https://twitter.com/h_lovatt/status/1350149997715730434
There was chatter that Abbas would sign today. But given past dashed hopes, you believe it when you see it. This comes after Hamas and Fatah agreed in July to move forward https://twitter.com/h_lovatt/status/1278719023526674432?s=20. And then in December Hamas softened its positions https://twitter.com/h_lovatt/status/1346785780757368832?s=20 https://twitter.com/h_lovatt/status/1350149997715730434
After 15 years of deadlock, both sides clearly feel that elections are in their interest -- irrespective off who wins.
Hamas sees entering the PA as a means of escaping isolation &sanctions in Gaza. But big prize is the PNC (PLO parliament). This may push them towards moderation.
Hamas sees entering the PA as a means of escaping isolation &sanctions in Gaza. But big prize is the PNC (PLO parliament). This may push them towards moderation.
Fatah's equation is riskier. Abbas is under pressure. He is 85 and unpopular. Will he stand or trigger a (messy) succession race? Fatah may also be unable to field a unified PLC list given internal divisions (Dahlan, Barghouti...). Will Abbas clamp down on his Fatah rivals?
Who actually wins the legislative (PLC) elex may not matter. Hamas and Fatah may reach power sharing agreement in advance. The future identity of the next Pres (if not Abbas) will be big issue. Speculation Hamas' Mashal could run. But equally possible it back consensus figure.
There are in the meantime many unknowns and obstacles: Will Hamas allow Fatah to campaign in Gaza, and vis versa? To what extent will factions pre-cook results - in terms of distribution of seats and power-sharing? How will elex take place in EJ given Israeli restrictions?
3rd party reactions are important. Israel allowed elex in 2005/2006, incl in EJ. But since then it has arrested members of the PLC, mostly from Hamas. How will it respond? And have the US and EU learned from their catastrophic policy in 2006 when they refused results?
Biden and EU will likely welcome free and fair elex. But how will they react to H win or its participation in PA govt? In15 years they have done v little to prepare for this moment. So there is prob some scrambling going on in foreign capitals to figure out how best to respond!
For more info and background, there is @ecfr's resource on Palestinian politics, including this section giving background on past elections and electoral laws (which will be updated!) https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/elections_pa
And for excellent insight into Hamas dynamics and why it taking part in elex is good for peace, see this great @ecfr article by @muhammadshehad2 who argues
"supporting the group’s participation in future Palestinian elections...could empower moderates" https://ecfr.eu/special/mena-armed-groups/hamas-palestine/
"supporting the group’s participation in future Palestinian elections...could empower moderates" https://ecfr.eu/special/mena-armed-groups/hamas-palestine/
Finally (for now) -- re-upping my piece from 2017 on why it is time for the EU to talk to Hamas: https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_time_to_bring_hamas_in_from_the_7283/
