I took a dive into *Waterloo* COVID + other historical data to help me avoid clickbait headlines & think critically about our response to date. Local data is more tangible. Discussing this is hard because we’re not used to death statistics.

Thread 1/7ish

COVID has been linked to the deaths of 179 people in Waterloo, 92% were ≥70yo [1] majority w/ comorbidities.
“1st wave” = ~1500 ID’ed cases, 120 deaths
“2nd wave (so far)” = ~6000 ID’ed cases, 59 deaths [2]

How does that compare to other causes of death in Waterloo?
2/7

In 2015, 5256 people died in Waterloo, ~64% were 75+yo.
1514 died of cardiovascular disease = 2157 potential years of life lost (PYLL)
1492 died of cancer (F*ck cancer) = 3466 PYLL
318 died of injuries = 5620 PYLL

All data from [3]. You can learn more about PYLL via [8]
3/7

Potential years of life lost due to COVID isn’t currently published, but a worst case estimate is 515 PYLL. Compare to above for context.
(75-age of death) * deaths:
(75-40)*3 = 105
(75-50)*3 = 75
(75-60)*9 = 135
(75-70)*40 = 200
Deaths >75yo don’t add to PYLL
4/7

Hospital capacity issues predate COVID [4]. COVID is a last straw on a system operating near max capacity. Will the $Bs spent on COVID response yield the most life saved vs. addressing root cause of system strain? I’m drifting from the data...back to it.
5/7

2nd order effects of our COVID response worry me. Overdose deaths are up (98 in ‘20 vs. 63 in ‘19) [6], ~25% of cancers are going undiagnosed meaning delayed treatment & worse outcomes [7], impacts of: delayed/canceled surgeries, major school disruptions etc.
6/7

Above is *data*. I’m sure we’ll interpret in our own ways and conclude different things. My goal is to understand deeper than top-line case numbers; COVID is more complicated than one metric or graph. Addendum below for my *opinions*
7/7

COVID disproportionately affects 70yo+. We can save more life if we focus our resources on protecting 70yo+. E.g. Rapid testing in LTCs, staffing model changes, sick days, etc.

Opinion addendum
8/7

2nd order effects of COVID response (overdose, suicide, delayed cancer treatment / surgeries, neg. impact of school disruption, etc) will cost more life than COVID

Opinion addendum
9/7

Here are all my sources (for transparency & if you want to crunch your own communities numbers)

[1] Filtered for Waterloo Region COVID linked deaths by death decade age.

Decade age, deaths (all time):
40s, 3
50s, 3
60s, 9
70s, 40
80s, 70
90s, 55

https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/confirmed-positive-cases-of-covid-19-in-ontario/resource/455fd63b-603d-4608-8216-7d8647f43350

10/7

[2] http://regionofwaterloo.ca/en/health-and-wellness/positive-cases-in-waterloo-region.aspx

[3] LHIN level data. Nothing special about 2015, just the latest data that I was able to find http://publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-analysis/mortality-overall-health/all-cause-mortality
and
http://publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-analysis/mortality-overall-health/pyoll

[5] http://cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hospital-occupancy-covid-19-hallway-healthcare-1.5784075

[6] http://waterlooregiondrugstrategy.ca/en/data-and-research/overdose-data-for-waterloo-region-omars.aspx

[7] http://cbc.ca/news/health/cancer-tsunami-screening-delays-covid-1.5844708

11/7

[8] Info about the concept of potential years of life lost
http://core.apheo.ca/index.php?pid=190 and
http://core.apheo.ca/index.php?pid=90 and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Years_of_potential_life_lost

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