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1. It's time for the weekly "data from Sweden" thread.
This week 4 main things.
A. Increase in the number of reports
B. Deaths still being reporting back to mid-december
C. Comparing to France?
D. Data on school suggest closing would help.
Let's go!
This week 4 main things.
A. Increase in the number of reports
B. Deaths still being reporting back to mid-december
C. Comparing to France?
D. Data on school suggest closing would help.
Let's go!
2. First, before this week, somehow the swedish public health agency did not consider COVIC too important and reported on deaths only twice a week.
3. I mentioned last week that things are being taken much more seriously now since the government has passed a new temporary law to allow them to close public places likely to spread the virus.
4. You can read more about it in a great article reporting on the Swedish situation with analysis from @FLAHAULT as well. It's all in French though, but would be happy to help if google translate is not enough. https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/2948915-20210109-coronavirus-fin-definitif-modele-suedois
5. If you've been following me before, you know that I have mentioned many this and all the other issues with the situation in Sweden before. You can find short sum ups in these two videos (also in French and with @FLAHAULT)
6. Back to the topic, things are being taken more seriously this week too, now the Swedish Health Agency reports on deaths everyday. Let's look at how many deaths they have reported this week.
7.Breakdown per date:
12th --> 234
13th --> 167
14th --> 351
15th --> 138
The increase in report frequency is clearly visible in this screenshot which has all the data I mentioned.
12th --> 234
13th --> 167
14th --> 351
15th --> 138
The increase in report frequency is clearly visible in this screenshot which has all the data I mentioned.
8. Now, I have mentioned before that there is a lag in the report of death. This is clearly visible in these two graphs from yesterday and today.
We are adding deaths all the back to mid-december.
We are adding deaths all the back to mid-december.
9. Not a lot admittedly, but adding 1 or 2 deaths everyday for mid-december eventually creates the dramatic data that we see now.
10. The lag in the report of deaths has been explained a 1000 times before. For more info, read here
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting
And check the data here: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting
And check the data here: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
11. Now many "plandemic" wannabe scientists keep telling me that at least Sweden is free and that it does better that countries like France for deaths and the economy.
Is that true though? Let's take a look.
Is that true though? Let's take a look.
12. To answer we need to consider 2 things. First, the second wave started in France on the 17th of October. In sweden only on the 13th of November, when France was almost at its peak. Clearly visible in the figure here.
13. Then we have to consider that there is a delay in the report of deaths in Sweden. As I said, we are still today adding deaths for all the way back to mid-december. That's a delay in reporting of 2 or 3 weeks.
14. Without even taking into account these two factors, we see already that Sweden is almost as bad as France in death/M. If we consider just the delay in reporting and compare Fra (2 and 3 weeks ago) to Swe... what do we get?
15.
Sweden today = 1064 deaths/M
France 1 week ago = 1021 deaths/M
France 2 weeks ago = 992 deaths/M
France 3 weeks ago = 955 deaths/M
Sweden today = 1064 deaths/M
France 1 week ago = 1021 deaths/M
France 2 weeks ago = 992 deaths/M
France 3 weeks ago = 955 deaths/M
16. So by very roughly adjusting for a delay of 1 week Sweden already has more deaths/M than F. Without adjusting, almost just as many. Dramatic!
17. Now is the time to remind everyone that comparisons such as this one do not make sense. France and Sweden have very different demographics, by this I mean: a different age repartition, a different density of population.
18. But also different social behaviours, a different healthcare system, etc... And most of these factors played in favor of nordic countries (not very densily populated for instance).
19. So comparing Sweden to France is nonsensical. Comparing Sweden to its neighbours makes more sense and can help us better understand if Sweden had a good strategy. Especially considering that neighbours had more strict regulations. So did it?
20. The very obvious answer to this is "Hell no!" Sweden has 2 to 3 times more deaths/M that all its neighbours combined! Dramatic!
21. Now people will tell me that at least Sweden saved its economy. 2 things to answer to this. The first is "Hell no!" Yet again neighbours did better.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/
22. The second is to remind people that the whole saving lives VS saving the economy is a complete false dichotomy (also indicated by the previous source) https://theconversation.com/data-from-45-countries-show-containing-covid-vs-saving-the-economy-is-a-false-dichotomy-150533?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton
23. Now onto more bad news.
Close look at data from schools. A reminder first, all highschools are closed and education has been distant since April.
Close look at data from schools. A reminder first, all highschools are closed and education has been distant since April.
24. New data from weeks 46 to 50 in Sweden reports a total of 467 outbreaks in schools (highschools excluded), which corresponds to 48% of all the reported outbreaks in this period (967).
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-covid-19/2020/veckorapport-covid-19-v50-final.pdf
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-covid-19/2020/veckorapport-covid-19-v50-final.pdf
25. The Swedish health agency states in the report that "Among environments for the general public, compulsory school was the environment from which most outbreaks were reported in week 50, followed by other workplaces and preschools"
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-covid-19/2020/veckorapport-covid-19-v50-final.pdf
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-covid-19/2020/veckorapport-covid-19-v50-final.pdf
26. Source for this is the same as from the data: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-covid-19/2020/veckorapport-covid-19-v50-final.pdf
27. Some more things? Yes!
While some people on TV or here try to make you think that no one is worried in Sweden, it's not true.
While some people on TV or here try to make you think that no one is worried in Sweden, it's not true.
28. Some professors fear that the total death toll might be up to 15000 when we are through with this. https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Ky6o84/darfor-har-sa-manga-smittade-avlidit-har?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral
29. These concerns are relayed also by the predecessor (Annika Linde) of Anders Tegnell (same source) https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Ky6o84/darfor-har-sa-manga-smittade-avlidit-har?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral
30. Annike Linde also confirms that we should compare Sweden to other nordic countries only and that the Swedish strategy is the one reason for such bad numbers (same source)
31. Finally even Anders Tegnell admits now that their prediction downplayed everything. In some cases, the real data is 72% worse than the worst case scenario they imagined. https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/facit-smittan-72-procent-varre-an-i-fhms-scenario/?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral
That's it for this week and debunking the crap said about Sweden and it's "wonderful" strategy.
People, make this more viral than COVID.
Poke @vetcov19 @schneiderleonid @DavidSteadson @gorskon
People, make this more viral than COVID.
Poke @vetcov19 @schneiderleonid @DavidSteadson @gorskon
Poke @MicrobiomDigest you might want to check it out too :)
Poke @UlrikaCampbell
