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Positive swabs down 400 on yesterday to 3457 but thats on 5500 fewer tests & positivity has increased to 15.1% from 13.7%. 22,874 tests done which is still a lot but we are looking at quite a slow rate of decrease s may either need additional measures or a very long 'lockdown'
Today's figure is 67% of last Fridays swabs, at that rate
2316 next Friday 22nd
1551 Fri 29th
1039
697
468
313
210
140
94 on March 19th
2316 next Friday 22nd
1551 Fri 29th
1039
697
468
313
210
140
94 on March 19th
But that timetable may be optimistic in particular if schools reopen on Feb 1st & if the English variant continues to increase as a proportion of the whole. A lot of workers are still be required to go into offices or construction, leading to crowded transport so a long lockdown
Imaging the same sequence with 50% reduction instead each week
1729 next Friday 22nd
864 Fri 29th
432
216
108
54 26th February, both lower and 3 weeks earlier
1729 next Friday 22nd
864 Fri 29th
432
216
108
54 26th February, both lower and 3 weeks earlier
The difference between those two in not just 3 weeks extra lockdown but also thousands of hospitalisations and hundreds of deaths. And economically while a few companies benefit now from lighter lockdown for them most lose because they are shut under longer lockdown
Worth considering is that the existing data **could** show the English variant reaching a steady state close to 3k a day as the older variant is suppressed. A steady state 3k a day would be a disaster https://twitter.com/Bitter_lemons/status/1348996645673988101?s=20
