Read on Twitter
damn. damn. damn. https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1350074047049166848
AND THIS IS WHAT GOES IN GDP FOR CONSUMER SPENDING! down 2.1% bad. bad. bad.
PS revising down your Q1 forecasts now A LOT, you overly optimistic Wall Street.
PPS @BEA_News strips building material stores out and keeps auto parts for PCE. even so. https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1350074048689135616?s=20
PS revising down your Q1 forecasts now A LOT, you overly optimistic Wall Street.
PPS @BEA_News strips building material stores out and keeps auto parts for PCE. even so. https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1350074048689135616?s=20
I have been telling you FOR MONTHS!!! retail sales in November and December would look like shit. https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1332301433065119747?s=20 nothing changes until we kill this goddamn virus. people are dying and families are struggling. wtf
adding different reply. ps @pearkes is right in his reply that durable had been strong. my point is too many were banking on it to continue. pps services looked like shit for a long time and it's only a small part of retail sales report. https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1350076320307437568?s=20
2 months of declines in overall retail spending, seasonally adjusted -- declines in many types of businesses.
again shows COVID!!, end of fiscal relief, and uncertainty about more relief coming -- kept people from spending.
Merry effing Christmas.
again shows COVID!!, end of fiscal relief, and uncertainty about more relief coming -- kept people from spending.
Merry effing Christmas.
(corrected chart)
sales that don't take out regular changes in spending during the year (not seasonally adjusted, gray line) did rise in December -- but not as much as they usually would, so seasonally adjusted (orange line) fell.
PS it's Nov that was missed it's holiday bump.
sales that don't take out regular changes in spending during the year (not seasonally adjusted, gray line) did rise in December -- but not as much as they usually would, so seasonally adjusted (orange line) fell.
PS it's Nov that was missed it's holiday bump.
ok, said what I have to say on retail sales today.
reminder: aggregate numbers like these mask big differences in hardship now and always. we need to watch them. but do not let GDP be our goal post for recovery https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1349858460998004738?s=20
reminder: aggregate numbers like these mask big differences in hardship now and always. we need to watch them. but do not let GDP be our goal post for recovery https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1349858460998004738?s=20
PS was totally blessed to be trained on macro aggregates, always done research with household data, and have gotten to work on inequality (including distributional macro). so much work out there on each important area. love trying to pull all the thread together.
