Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19: "While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs." https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484#.YAGaQ2N_OhE.twitter
A mainstream write up. https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1349899411598569473
The reality is that is what I've been saying since summer.
IF you stopped the virus in phase 1 (like Taiwan, NZ, Australia) then this might work. But once you get community spread, its too late.
At that point, even if you shut down, people spread it at home, etc.
IF you stopped the virus in phase 1 (like Taiwan, NZ, Australia) then this might work. But once you get community spread, its too late.
At that point, even if you shut down, people spread it at home, etc.
Early shutdowns did save lives...for a time. But the only way to sustain those lives saved was to stay shut down...and that was always unsustainable. Even in China, that has been unsustainable.
This is a very good thread. Worth a read. https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1349164532627693570?s=20