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Little thread about Cardano and my general skepticism.
First, Cardano is an incredibly speculative investment.
Many aren't aware of it, but it's a very risky bet to take.
Many aren't aware of it, but it's a very risky bet to take.
Second, Cardano has nothing yet. There is staking, yes, but how does staking matter when there is no way to use the network?
Smart contracts, side-chains and governance still need to arrive, which will probably take another year or so.
Polkadot has them all since months now.
Smart contracts, side-chains and governance still need to arrive, which will probably take another year or so.
Polkadot has them all since months now.
But, at the end of the day, no one cares about your incredible features.
No one cares either about "peer review", it's sad, but it's the truth. Think about it.
No one cares either about "peer review", it's sad, but it's the truth. Think about it.
Is Ethereum peer reviewed? No it isn't.
Though, it's still THE most successful smart contract blockchain. Banks, governments, major companies all use it.
Again, no one cares about peer review. It's a bonus, not a feature and definitely not a deal-breaker.
Though, it's still THE most successful smart contract blockchain. Banks, governments, major companies all use it.
Again, no one cares about peer review. It's a bonus, not a feature and definitely not a deal-breaker.
Probably not entirely comparable, but as far as I know, AWS isn't peer reviewed either.
Again, peer review is not a real feature, it's a bonus and it fits well on a marketing document.
Again, peer review is not a real feature, it's a bonus and it fits well on a marketing document.
If you cared about the features, you would probably use something like Solana or NEAR 24/7.
Though, you maybe don't even know these two. That's how low their traction is.
Though, you maybe don't even know these two. That's how low their traction is.
Facts:
- no one cares about scalability (layer-2s solve that anyway)
- no one cares about MASSIVE decentralization (a regularly decentralized network is enough)
- no one cares about fancy languages to code with (yes, looking at you Plutus and Marlowe)
- no one cares about scalability (layer-2s solve that anyway)
- no one cares about MASSIVE decentralization (a regularly decentralized network is enough)
- no one cares about fancy languages to code with (yes, looking at you Plutus and Marlowe)
These fancy languages make the on-boarding of new developers actually more complicated, as they make the barrier to entry much higher.
Especially when these languages are notoriously complicated to learn like Haskell.
Especially when these languages are notoriously complicated to learn like Haskell.
Aside from that, even with Marlowe which is apparently easy to learn, there is still another problem: the ecosystem.
What people care about is the ecosystem. Again, no one cares about the features.
The reason why everyone still uses Ethereum while the gas fees are still SO high, is because all the activity is there.
The reason why everyone still uses Ethereum while the gas fees are still SO high, is because all the activity is there.
In order to gain traction, Cardano first needs to have smart contracts.
This will apparently arrive pretty soon.
This will apparently arrive pretty soon.
Assuming these smart contracts arrive on time and work well, the next step is to gain traction.
That's THE problem Cardano will have a lot of difficulties to solve.
It's the typical chicken-and-the-egg problem.
That's THE problem Cardano will have a lot of difficulties to solve.
It's the typical chicken-and-the-egg problem.
How can you attract developers when other developers are needed to attract them (= how to build an ecosystem from scratch when newcomers are looking for an already-existing vibrant ecosystem)
Major problem.
Major problem.
I don't think there is an efficient way to solve the chicken-and-the-egg problem without spending tens if not hundreds of millions in grants to attract developers.
(this is what Polkadot is doing right now by the way)
(this is what Polkadot is doing right now by the way)
The way to solve this for Cardano is to either spend these millions, or shift its focus on a specific target market.
Africa, for example.
Africa, for example.
While Cardano markets itself as focused on Africa at the moment, it remains to be seen whether or not this is real or just marketing.
Fact is that 99% of the community is not Africa based.
Fact is that 99% of the community is not Africa based.
So you can tell me whatever you want about how the focus is on Africa, as long as the majority of the community isn't based in Africa, there is no way it can succeed there in my opinion.
Of course, entities like IOHK can partner with local governments to create solutions for them, but that's not mass adoption.
Government deals take a TON of time (many years), and will probably only focus on a specific segment, like tracking the production of fruit for example.
Government deals take a TON of time (many years), and will probably only focus on a specific segment, like tracking the production of fruit for example.
But to make Cardano a success, it needs mass adoption.
And for mass adoption, it needs a vibrant community in Africa. As long as that's not the case, no way Cardano can succeed there in my opinion.
And for mass adoption, it needs a vibrant community in Africa. As long as that's not the case, no way Cardano can succeed there in my opinion.
So, Cardano will have a lot of difficulties if it wants to directly compete with Ethereum and Polkadot.
And on top of that, the only way it has (in my opinion), to solve this issue, is to focus entirely on Africa, which isn't the case right now (at all).
And on top of that, the only way it has (in my opinion), to solve this issue, is to focus entirely on Africa, which isn't the case right now (at all).
Aside from that, there is a major actor in the Africa blockchain center called Celo.
Celo is backed by the biggest, including Andreesen Horowitz, Coinbase, Polychain, Naval Ravikant, Social Capital, Reid Hoffman, Casey Neistat, Jack Dorsey, Elad Gil,...
Celo is backed by the biggest, including Andreesen Horowitz, Coinbase, Polychain, Naval Ravikant, Social Capital, Reid Hoffman, Casey Neistat, Jack Dorsey, Elad Gil,...
And Celo is unlike Cardano **entirely** focused on Africa.
Entirely.
Entirely.
At a $10B marketcap, I'm very hesitant regarding the future of Cardano giving the elements shared above.
I might change my mind depending on how Cardano plays out in the upcoming months with Goguen, though.
I might change my mind depending on how Cardano plays out in the upcoming months with Goguen, though.
