Transfer Trends: DGW19 thread

Welcome to Transfer Trends, with snippets from my article focused on an interesting transfer combination each GW #GW19 #FPL #FPLCommunity

Appreciate all RT/

Data + full article re Zaha > Soucek transfers @FFH_HQ: https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-double-gameweek-19-best-transfer-tips

A popular midfielder transfer combo this week for many FPL managers is Son for one of De Bryune or Salah.

A popular forward transfer combo is Calvert-Lewin or Wilson for one of Bamford or Antonio.

Fixture Tickers for GW19-24 at the end of the thread!

The above players have had a lot of analysis in the past few weeks so this week’s article is going to look at budget midfielders.

This week the topmost transferred in midfielder is Soucek (£5.3m) and he is replacing midfielders such as Wilfried Zaha (£7.4m) and Pedro Neto (£6m)

Soucek vs Zaha analysis
Transfers IN

Soucek - WHU
Fixtures: BUR (H), WBA (H), CRY (a), LIV (H)
Ownership: 14%
Transfers in: 176k

Impressively despite Soucek playing as a DM, in the last 10GWs, only Bruno (7) & Salah (6) have scored more goals than the Czech international (5).

He is regularly in goalscoring positions and the majority of his shots are taken from inside the box (26/31 shots in the box).

He has quickly become a fan favourite at WHU with his big personality + hard work ethic. He has played 90 minutes in all 17 of WHU's PL matches.

Soucek's Underlying Opta stats this season (GW1-18):
1,530 mins (17 appearances/ 17 starts)
53 touches in the penalty box
31 shots (12 on target)
26 shots inside the box
7 big chances
6 chances created (0 big chances created)
5 goals (4.52 xG)
1 assist (1.29 xA)

He has 2 home games in DGW19 against BUR + WBA. WBA has conceded the most goals this season (39). BUR is better at the back than WBA (20 goals conceded).

@allaboutfpl shared this interesting snippet about WBA conceding the 2nd most headed attempts (44) https://twitter.com/allaboutfpl/status/1349766313070137345?s=20

The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 7.2 points for Soucek in GW19. Once the DGW is over he can still be rotated into your starting eleven or used as a first sub if you have seven stronger forwards to field that week.

Transfer rating:

Soucek is nailed on to start and play 90mins every match for WHU. His friendly price-tag will be an enabler in the DGW to squeeze in the premiums who play twice. He can also act as the first sub beyond DGW19...

.... but many FPL managers will warn you of their benched Soucek points as he can return against any opponent.

Considering that many are bringing him in for Zaha, it is only fair that we move onto analysing Zaha over the short & long term.

Transfers OUT

Zaha (£7.4m) – CRY
Fixtures: ARS (a), MCI (a), WHU (H), WOL (H)
Ownership: 20%
Transfers out: 53k

He has been in great form this season, having already scored more goals this season (8) than he did in the entire 38 matches last season (4)! However, Palace has...

... been in terrible form lately only picking up 6 points from the last 6 matches. The Ivory Coast international only has 1 goal in his last 6 games. Zaha faces MCI away from home in DGW19. This is the worst fixture possible for an out of form Palace side.

Zaha's Underlying Opta stats this season (GW1-18):
1,341 mins (15 appearances / 15 starts)
94 touches in the penalty box
36 shots (13 on target)
32 shots inside the box
8 big chances
16 chances created (3 big chances created)
8 goals (5.76 xG)
3 assists (3.03 xA)

In the last 6 GWs, Palace is 19th for xG (5.67), joint-bottom for Big Chances (6) and 19th for Big Chances Created (3). During that same spell their opponents Man City, have the lowest xGC in the Premier League (3.19) and have only conceded two goals in six matches (joint-best).

The picture painted by the last 6 Gws though shows that £5.3m Soucek from defensive midfield has better underlying attacking numbers than £7.4m Zaha who is playing as a winger/striker in matches.

It is immediately clear that Zaha and Palace’s form has dropped off considerably in the last 6 GWs. You can see that his underlying attacking numbers are all better than Soucek over the full season.

Zaha is projected to net just 2.9 points on the Predicted Points tool in DGW 19. Whilst Soucek has 2 juicy home fixtures against BUR + WBA. Soucek’s projected to net 7.2 points in GW 19 alone.

Over the longer term, once the Double Gameweek is out of the way, Zaha is predicted to get much closer to Soucek. Between Gameweeks 19 and 24, Zaha overtakes Soucek with a projection of 22.9 points vs 22 points.

Transfer rating:

With many FPL managers scrambling to set-up their teams with DGW options, it makes complete sense to be jumping off the out of form CRY train and sell Zaha in his toughest fixture of the season...

...Soucek is a fantastic player with a real knack for taking shots that are of very high xG. Swapping his 2 home fixtures for Zaha’s 1 fixture and an extra £2.1m in the bank for another transfer feels like a strong move.

If you already own Soucek and are still keen on selling Zaha to chase upside elsewhere, then my favourite alternatives with DGWfixtures are Bowen (£6.4m), El Ghazi (£5.4m), Foden (£6.2m) or Mount (£6.8m).

If you can afford an upgrade then the likes of Rashford (£9.6m), De Bruyne (£11.8m), Salah (£12.5m) and Fernandes (£11.3m) are all brilliant options for the DGW fixtures.

Here is a view of the upcoming 6 GWs with the Fixture Ticker for both attack and defence.

*Please note the DGWs are messing with the sorting in ascending/descending order for the Ticker. The main thing to know is that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence.

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Good luck in GW19 & don't forget the 11:00 GMT deadline tomorrow 16.01.21

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