Thank you to @bearaboi & to my new followers in the last few days for keeping an eye on German/EU politics alongside the American developments that have us glued to our screens. In 2021, as #Biden enters, #Merkel leaves. So where are we on her succession? Let's thread this (1/n). https://twitter.com/bearaboi/status/1346744898775613441

Today and tomorrow, Merkel's Christian Democratic Union will vote on who will lead the party into this September's federal election campaign. It's the first one Merkel won't be contesting since she moved into the Chancellor's office in 2005.

Whoever wins will have a clear shot at becoming Germany's next Chancellor. Merkel's CDU has governed Germany for 50 of the last 70 years. Although it bled support between the 2013 and 2017 elections, it has recovered in the polls during the pandemic.

A notably stable party, a vote for a new CDU Chair, or "Vorsitz," is rare. Since 1973, the party has had only four leaders. So who are the three men running? Check out this nice @dwnews overview of Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, and Armin Laschet here: https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-ruling-cdu-poised-to-elect-new-leader/a-56226286

So who is getting support? The conservative Merz, moderate North-Rhine Westphalia Premier Laschet, or Bundestag Foreign Affairs Chair Röttgen, an outsider who appeals to some of the party's younger activists and foreign policy nerds? Polls are pretty even at the moment:

Ultimately though, the decision is in the hands of 1,001 party delegates, and I'm not going to guess who they're going to choose. Merz's ideological leanings are popular for some delegates, but they may think voters will go more for moderates like Laschet or Röttgen.