A quick thread on #COVID19 deaths in British Columbia, where we appear to be headed, and what is reasonable to expect over the next month

Here's a new chart: it shows the average number of #COVID19 deaths per day in B.C. on a rolling seven-day average.

It tracks roughly with new cases, with a month-long lag, with a couple of exceptions:

One is that deaths were much higher relative to cases in April and May then other times — which is likely a product of people who were positive but didn't get a test in the 1st wave.

The other is an extreme surge of cases in care homes in November, making the trendline steeper.

The reduction of deaths in B.C. comes amidst the second wave continuing to surge across several continents.

The split between COVID Zero countries and those trying a middle approach continues to widen — but B.C.'s continued relative success among the latter group does too.

B.C. has vaccinated most people in long-term care homes now, along with staff.

When might result in significant reductions in deaths?

Probably in February.

Consider the month lag between cases and deaths, and consider a shot doesn't grant immediate immunity.

Of course, every country in the world vaccinating right now is finding out:

a) if it's just as effective with the very elderly
b) if people can still spread without infection

We still don't have full confirmation, which is why caution is helpful. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-vaccine-timeline-2021-questions-1.5870991

What's an ideal but still plausible scenario in B.C. one month from now?

- Deaths are consistently below 5 a day
- Daily case count/hospitalizations still high, but declining slowly
- Clear timeline for immunization of most people between March-June

That would be, um, very nice

Are there obstacles to that path?

Yep. Lots.

- B117 variant overwhelms the province
- Much higher surge in schools then we've seen to date
- Supply of vaccination stalls

There's always potential obstacles.

Only one person we can each control though.