Thing are feeling pretty uncertain right now, so lets talk about a tool that was designed by psychologists for therapy, adopted by intelligence analysts to predict enemy actions, and which is incredibly useful for anyone thinking about types of uncertainty- the Johari Window. 1/4

It became a joke when cited by Rumsfeld during the Iraq War: “there are known knowns...things we know we know. There are known unknowns...we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-the ones we don't know we don't know..." But it is profound.

Known knows are facts - these are the things you don’t need to plan, they are what you know are true: how have you responded to COVID so far?

Known unknowns are uncertainties, things you know will happen, but don’t know how they will work out. COVID will end, but how & when?

Finally, there are unknown unknowns: risks that you cannot plan for, because we can't expect them. COVID was an unknown unknown.

This system is useful for thinking through your plans and risks. To see how, I sketch out how to use it for founders here: https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1230323348468633601?s=20