1/ #BTC will become the premier non-correlated asset, but it is not that yet, at least not for a subset of its current investor base, who see it as a risk-on asset like, e.g., US tech stocks. Just look at today's PA comparison of BTC and the Nasdaq, esp. near US market close.

2/ Over the long term, BTC and US equiity markets are uncorrelated already, but right now, in the current macroenvironment, they are more regularly and closely correlated than some care to admit. I bring this up for only one reason...

3/ I think US equity markets are fragile right now, so if they crack hard, so too will #BTC . I just don't think there's any way around it. BUT, I also think once the collapse occurs, it will FINALLY enable BTC to break free once and for all...

4/ i.e., As painful as the global collapse will be, including within #BTC , it might be the accelerant that BTC needs to finally realize its full potential. It's just going to take some turbulence in the interim to reach fulfill its destiny. That said....

5/ As long as the Fed and Treasury can keep the music playing, so too will #BTC blossom. Let's hope they can do so for at least a few more months, when BTC is firmly in 6-figure territory. Somehow I think a temporary 50% swoon from $150K would feel less painful than from $40K.

6/ Okay, enough pessimism for today. Just a reminder of my investment strategy: I find it makes sense to focus on contrarian perspectives to reduce recency bias and maintain objectivity. Now that we're on a roll, now is the time to look for holes in the bullish narrative.

7/ And when we swoon? That's the time to revisit the bullish narrative - so we don't lose sight of the reason we invested in #BTC in the first place.

Long and short, we need to cut through the FUD during downturns but not get too carried away during the spikes.

Anyway...