Israel:

1.95 million vaccinated (~22% pop.)

~76% of all 60+ years old

First signs of efficacy:

2-weeks after 30% of 60+ vac., drop of 25% in % of 60+ critically ill out of all cases

Cities with higher vac. rates have fewer critically ill

But many caveats and issues

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Caveats:

1.5% critically ill 60+ years old of all cases is low, but we reached this number several months ago. So while good and the timing consistent with a vaccine effect, it may also be due to pandemic fluctuations

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Also, lower fraction of critically ill out of cases could be due to an increase in the denominator, i.e., a rise in cases of the younger population. But this too may be a positive effect of the vaccines in reducing infections, and there are already positive such indications

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Another promising correlation: Cities with more 60+ vaccinated have fewer critically ill among 60+

But correlation is not causation, as one issue we have is that there are lower rates of vaccination in cities with higher rates of infections. A possible confounder

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And another issue seems to be saturation at vaccination rates that are too low in some cities. Despite vaccine availability, some cities seem to have saturated with only 50% or less of the 60+ years old vaccinated. We need to get more of this population vaccinated