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I’m not just a lockdown sceptic. I know lockdowns increase infections rather than decrease them because I read research first hand. I’m a citizen in a democracy who wants Government policy to be evidence-based, not epidemiological modelling based. Crazy, I know.
Lockdowns increase infections because they lower immunity & therefore increase the disease. After hospitals & care homes households account for the largest number of transmissions. Schools/universities act as a break in transmission of the disease. All evidence based.
Transmission does not mean infection. I can transmit SARSCoV2 but I can't transmit Covid19. Whether SARSCoV2 develops at all into mild or severe Covid19 depends entirely on the immune system of the recipient. Early treatment prevents severe Covid19, the right treatment cures it.
"Children act more as a brake on infection," said Prof. Reinhard Berner, the head of pediatric medicine at Dresden University Hospital and leader of the study. "Not every infection that reaches them is passed on." https://theweek.com/speedreads/925304/german-researchers-argue-children-may-act-brake-coronavirus-infections
Closing schools increases transmission of respiratory viral infection because children act as a break on the community transmission of the virus. We have known this since 1918:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf
"We confirm that adding school and university closures to case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s would lead to more deaths compared with the equivalent scenario without the closures of schools and universities." https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
"Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate."
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full
"We explored two MODELS DEVELOPED BY IMPERIAL COLLEGE..Inferences on effects of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. CLAIMED BENEFITS OF LOCKDOWN APPEAR GROSSLY EXAGGERATED."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3
There is no correlation whatsoever between mortality rates & lockdowns. There are instead distinct correlations between mortality rates & vitamin D levels:
"Correlations have been shown between the historic prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and COVID-19 mortality per million by country. This has been shown for European countries"
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.201912#RSOS201912F7
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.201912#RSOS201912F7
There are also noticeable correlations between Omega-3 levels & low mortality rates:
"Global survey of the omega-3 fatty acids, docosahexaenoic acid and eicosapentaenoic acid in the blood stream of healthy adults"
Green=High Omega-3 levels
Red=Low Omega-3 levels
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163782715300333
Green=High Omega-3 levels
Red=Low Omega-3 levels
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163782715300333
Why vitamin D rather than lockdowns reduces mortality:
"Vitamin D deficiency enhances the cytokine storm, thereby, it is a risk factor for and/or a driver of the excessive and persistent inflammation, which is a main characteristic of ARDS and may be considerably lethal in subjects with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7362103/#!po=0.549451
"When a T cell is exposed to a foreign pathogen, it extends a signalling device or 'antenna' known as a vitamin D receptor, with which it searches for vitamin D,", and if there is an inadequate vitamin D level, "they won't even begin to mobilize." https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563/rr-6
Why Omega 3s reduce mortality. Thread: https://twitter.com/robinmonotti/status/1340284249363103746?s=19
"The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures..we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs." https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484
COVID lockdowns have no clear benefit vs other voluntary measures, international study shows https://www.newsweek.com/covid-lockdowns-have-no-clear-benefit-vs-other-voluntary-measures-international-study-shows-1561656
