While we can't rule out a laboratory origin for the COVID-19 pandemic, the evidence to date suggests zoonotic emergence. Objective investigations have been derailed by politics and conspiracy theories. I wrote this perspective piece in @NatureMedicine. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01205-5

Most serious scientists commenting on the matter have stated, as I have, that all possible origin hypotheses need to be investigated in an evidence-driven way. So far, there is no affirmative evidence of accidental or intentional lab origin.

Historically, epidemics are rarely due to a lab accident, either involving a natural or engineered pathogen. They are much more likely to occur through zoonotic spillover. There is genetic evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has natural origins. There is no evidence to support a lab leak.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. This basic principle has been seized on by enthusiastic lab origin proponents. Overzealous activists, self-appointed detectives, unqualified writers, and politically motivated conspiracy theorists have converged under this banner.

And while we should objectively explore and investigate all possible hypotheses, the "I'm just asking questions, this is all very suspicious, what about (insert non-evidence here)" has been extremely harmful, both individually, to the scientific community, & to society as a whole

Arguing with the lab leak proponents is like talking to anti-vaxxers. They'll say they aren't conspiracy theorists, but then hit all the major conspiracy theory talking points:
-Answering questions with questions
-Strawman arguments about gain-of-function research & COI

-Presenting "evidence" that relies heavily on sinophobic stereotypes
-Ad hominem attacks (though I'll admit I laugh every time the term "knave" is used in this context)
-Using a "both sides" argument that implies scientists and conspiracy theorists are equally credible

-Digging around on the internet to cherry pick Twitter threads and out-of-context documentary evidence that people who collaborate are also friendly with each other, then present this as proof of a grand conspiracy. When this is pointed out, they say "I'm just asking questions!"

-Deeply misunderstanding fundamental virology. We've been cloning viruses and making chimeras and using reverse genetics systems for literally decades. The vast majority of this work is actually not "gain of function" or dual use research of concern.

-Deeply misunderstanding how gain-of-function research is actually regulated. Any GOF research funded by the US government is subject to heavy scrutiny and oversight, per federal law. You can't just take a NIH grant and start making more pathogenic/transmissible bat CoVs.

-Presenting media reports often containing unverifiable information as established fact
-Conflating complex geopolitical issues as further evidence ("China is secretive! Whistleblowers are silenced! It's EVIDENCE!")
-And so on and so on.

The reality is that there is no world pandemic police that can just serve China with a warrant & go search the freezers & archival records at the WIV which would potentially yield more insight as to the likelihood of lab origin. WHO & The Lancet are not law enforcement agencies.

And investigating zoonotic origins can take decades, and you may NEVER find the "smoking bat" or whatever other intermediate species that may be involved. It's like looking for a needle in a planet-sized haystack.

None of this means we shouldn't do an investigation or that we shouldn't consider all possible hypotheses, and by my estimation there are 3:
1. Zoonotic spillover
2. Lab accident
3. Intentional release

But we also shouldn't give these hypotheses equal weight, when the current evidence suggests one of these is more likely. We must investigate this objectively and let the evidence lead the way. Publicly proclaiming belief in the lab origin theories harms our ability to do this.

Robust debate is essential to sound science, but that debate should be informed by empirical evidence, not speculation based on pre-existing personal biases. Currently, this entire conversation has been derailed by the latter.

That will impair our ability to actually conduct the investigation that lab origin proponents are constantly clamoring for, and yet they seem unable to recognize that they are hindering, not helping, these efforts.

I urge everyone reading this to let the evidence lead the way, and to contribute to a climate that makes a fair & objective investigation possible. Call conspiracy theories what they are, distinguish between politics and science, and push back against this harmful misinformation.

A pandemic is by definition a global crisis. Telling the true story of its origin will require global cooperation. We can't move forward collaboratively without trust, and that is eroded by when personal bias and conspiracy theories are given equal weight as objective inquiry.