Plot twists that shock you are SUPER fun but your book shouldn’t hinge on the plot twists being shocking for the audience. It should hinge on it being shocking for the main character
A good example of this imo is in into the Spiderverse when Miles’ uncle is revealed. The audience probably figured it out but Miles reaction, the score, the intensity of the scene made it super impactful regardless of the shock value
I’m thinking of this because the burning god is doing a good job writing impactful twists that aren’t necessarily shocking. But I just read a book where the entire first half leads to a twist for the audience (which I figured out) and the difference is STARK