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It’s come to my attention that some leaders of Western countries, and @francoislegault, still haven’t understood that herd immunity is achieved through vaccines, not infection, and are dangerously subjecting their citizens to Great Barrington ideology. A thread. 
Some background on The Great Barrington Declaration. GBD proposes a focused approach “to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.”
I can see why this ideology is attractive to politicians, among others. Not only can people at “minimal risk” live their lives normally and run the economy, they’re also framed as silent heroes that are exposing themselves in order to protect “the herd.” How noble.
The obvious false virtue of it should be the first clue that it’s is a fantasy with no basis in science. The second clue is that it was sponsored by a Koch-funded libertarian think tank. It’s been debunked and called out as dangerous, unethical and *unachievable* many times.
Politicians and signatories that once openly supported this idea have since distanced themselves from it but an idea never dies, especially a convenient one. So, paradoxically, with the coming of vaccines the GBD approach has made an unwelcome comeback...
In Quebec:
@francoislegault @JustinTrudeau https://twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1348730754948325378?s=20
@francoislegault @JustinTrudeau https://twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1348730754948325378?s=20
Now I can try to convince you that it’s impossible to shield the elderly from rampant community transmission but many before me have tried and the GBD crowd persist in believing it can be done. So let’s focus on something else.
Let me introduce you to the city of Manaus, Brazil.
Let me introduce you to the city of Manaus, Brazil.
Manaus is the city of GBD dreams. A city of 2 million (like Montreal) with a very young population at “minimal risk of death” (94% younger than 60) that stopped “believing” in covid sometime last spring. In a population this young, the infection fatality rate is “only” about 0.2%
I’ve tweeted before about being wary of small percentages with covid. Covid lives in a world of large numbers and small percentages are deceiving. The first wave brought utter devastation to this city with over 4000 deaths. This is where they buried the bodies.
But even mass graves of young citizens won’t sway the GBDers. Though they’d never say it, they see this as sad but inevitable. Because after the carnage, 76% of people in Manaus were immune and the holy grail of herd immunity through infection was achieved and they could move on.
Many articles were written on the topic in the media and submitted to scientific journals.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1.full.off https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-manaus-brazil-the-first-city-to-reach-herd-immunity-146860
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1.full.off https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-manaus-brazil-the-first-city-to-reach-herd-immunity-146860
There was a small uptick in new cases come October but nothing alarming. Then came December. And a new strain. And a massive resurgence in cases.
This still wouldn’t be enough to sway the GBDers because right now they’re thinking “they have partial immunity though, so a resurgence of mild cases is nothing to worry about.”
And as usual, the GBD crowd with their belief system that has absolutely no basis in fact or science would be wrong. Manaus has declared a state of emergency amid an onslaught of new hospitalisations and deaths.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/hopes-herd-immunity-wane-manaus-city-declares-state-emergency/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/hopes-herd-immunity-wane-manaus-city-declares-state-emergency/
So to summarize, “allowing those at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity through natural infection” leads mass graves of young, healthy citizens *and still no herd immunity.* This approach is unethical and misguided.
So can we finally put this fantasy to bed and focus on the science? The only way out of this pandemic is to aggressively control it until all your citizens are vaccinated. Even if you’re “willing to risk it” the risk won’t pay off. There’s no other way out.
CC @francoislegault
CC @francoislegault
One more tweet to point to another string of tweets to show how in the era of the #variantwave, exposing kids, parents & young adults to these highly transmissible variants could make the above scenario could play out very quickly with no way to stop it. https://twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1349565988916883457?s=20
When I wrote this thread this morning, I knew the situation in Manaus was critical but I had no idea that it was evolving into a true humanitarian disaster. They’ve run out of oxygen. Patients are being manually ventilated. https://apple.news/AtUJVDJJYTfeUA4UDC6zBfA
“Anyone who has any oxygen available please bring it to the clinic [near the airport]. There are so many people dying, for the love of God.”
“In the coming hours Manaus is going to be the protagonist of one of the saddest chapters of the Covid-19 epidemic in the world.”
“In the coming hours Manaus is going to be the protagonist of one of the saddest chapters of the Covid-19 epidemic in the world.”
ID specialists have spent months urging authorities to impose some kind of lockdown to avoid exactly this situation. Their penultimate petition warned Manaus was again being “plunged into chaos”“We need to save lives and not repeat 2020’s health and humanitarian tragedy in 2021.”
“Politics kills,” the Getúlio Vargas hospital health worker said.
I would add that denialism kills. The pandemic is not over. Kids and younger adults are not invincible, it’ll be many months before the population is fully vaccinated and we’re in a critical situation *now*
I would add that denialism kills. The pandemic is not over. Kids and younger adults are not invincible, it’ll be many months before the population is fully vaccinated and we’re in a critical situation *now*
With nearly no beds left, even a small surge of regular covid would lead to tragedy. If a more transmissible variant establishes itself here, we could find ourselves facing a humanitarian disaster of our own. Denialism kills. We need a REAL lockdown. Yesterday.
@JustinTrudeau
@JustinTrudeau
I was alerted to this crisis by this post on my thread. My heart breaks for them. His link only allows donations from Brazil but maybe @redcrosscanada can let us know how to help?
They’re also asking for our prayers.
https://twitter.com/kthperseus/status/1349831333615443972?s=21 https://twitter.com/kthperseus/status/1349831333615443972
They’re also asking for our prayers.
https://twitter.com/kthperseus/status/1349831333615443972?s=21 https://twitter.com/kthperseus/status/1349831333615443972
