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1/x As always, insightful comment from Su here, and while $btc is a very different asset than most, and us corn speculators fancy ourselves to be unique from most of of our fintwit counterparts, i suspect we (and our market) have much more in common with equities than we think... https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1349588125266243585
2/x @lightcrypto made a comment on UCC about studying Bitcoin (and the markets it trades within) through proxy by seeking to understand historical precedent for emerging markets, especially markets that underwent a (one or more) revolutionary regulatory upheaval(s)
3/x one comparison I thought was very fitting, was how certain market participants can “pump” a shitcoin through an effectively closed loop of participants (wash trading) in a way that is akin to painting the tape in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” (great book)
4x One could argue that, while certainly a groundbreaking asset class and idea, Bitcoin is no more than a shitcoin when compared to the numbers of both market participants and notional value traded within the space in comparison to traditional markets (and especially options)
5/x Over the next few days, I am going to be scouring @skewdotcom @DeribitInsights @GenesisVol @CMEGroup historical market data, and attempt to come to some sort of conclusion about the year to come, and what sort of precedent there may be for a market that increases in not only
6/x Sheer numerical participation in an exponential fashion, but also markets that have seen 10, 20, 50, and even 100x more notional participation and investment within the derivatives market within a “short” period of time, and what it may mean for $btc price discovery
7/x These ideas have been mulling around in my head and come mostly from comments by people orders of magnitude smarter than I, like @jam_croissant @nope_its_lily @jeffh690 @alexharfouche1 @FREAK0NAUT @zhusu @lightcrypto @OrthoTrading @hasufl @jeff_w1098 and @redxbt to name a few
8/x The cornerstone for this train of thought comes mostly from @jam_croissant and his recent discussions involving “Gary” and 
( @AWice I think you’ll appreciate those threads) as well as the massively increasing volumes that @SBF_Alameda has been speaking about on FTX
( @AWice I think you’ll appreciate those threads) as well as the massively increasing volumes that @SBF_Alameda has been speaking about on FTX
9/x As well as @zhusu prediction as to the nature of expansion within the $btc derivatives space for 2021. I have a rather strong anecdotal thesis (as well as bias, I will admit) but would like to really have data driven facts before spouting any further about these opinions
10/x I should also mention that I am very long bitcoin (in no way a maxi, that’s just cringe) and have a significant % of my net worth invested in the emerging digital asset space (EDA for the remaining continuation of these threads)
11/ Hopefully this thread can toe the spread (hehe get it?) between digital and traditional assets, and look for commonalities where present, and important divergences that should be spoken to. If you just followed me you’re probably bored to death already, but bear w/ me
12/x And for any doubters of EDA, maybe think about the evolution of the computer, what they were no more than 20 years ago, to where we are now, as I type this on a few mm thick “supercomputer” (compared to the machines I so fondly played 64 bit games upon in my youth)
13/x brings to mind the quote, “any sufficiently advanced technology is non discernible from magic in the present” (or something like that). And I have been wondering, what does this mean for not only our wallets, cash, and systems of payment, but the overall financial sector
14/x Did you ever think you would have a “supercomputer” in your pocket? I’m not here to tout any extra benefit or anything, just think that is an apt comparison when wondering on which course our markets may take themselves upon in the near future, and is food for thought
15/15 The more interesting aspect of this discussion (to me) is how derivatives markets can impact emerging markets, and I hope some of you were able to bang your head along the counter long enough to finish this thread with me, and are looking forward to fleshing out this data!
