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What a start! 2021 will be a quite intense for those of us working on international affairs, isn’t it?
A THREAD with the ten topics that we’ll keep us busy
Based on the #World2021 report by @CidobBarcelona and @EsadeGeo : https://bit.ly/World2021
How do we cope with international crises? The cooperative Vs competitive geopolitics of vaccines. The side-effects of the pandemic. Humanitarian crises and new challenges for aid.
What can Biden-Harris do? The #CapitolRiots have given a new meaning to the choice between restauration (multilateralism, diplomacy, alliances, democracy) vs reorientation (China, post-pandemic strategies). Big question marks: margin of maneuver and Trumpism after Trump.
Climate: Lesson learnt? The pandemic showed how vulnerable we are, also that change is possible. All eyes on the COP in Glasgow, the promises made by Biden, China 2060 goals, the green recovery in the EU and also the impact of regulations (plastics) and technology (hydrogen)
Economic recovery? Yes, at some point. But lots of uncertainty. And more importantly, not for everyone. What happens to those countries, territories, sectors and individuals that see the light at the end but are still stuck inside the tunnel?
Back to normal or new normal? The changes in how we work, learn, buy and travel have major geopolitical implications. For instance, for countries that rely on tourism. Also, the skyrocketing cloud economy and increased cyber-vulnerabilities.
What about the digital giants? With the expansion comes the exposure. This will translate differently in the US, China, the EU and the global South but there are common elements: sovereignty, competition, taxation.
Post-pandemic cities? Global cities aim at becoming greener, healthier, more liveable… But the pandemic is also deepening inequalities and has accentuated already-existing problems such as housing. Will cities be a fertile ground for social unrest?
Post-pandemic migrants? Borders, borders, and more borders… Not many hopes when it comes to managing international flows differently but a there is a chance for recognition of the role migrants play in societies and the need to have inclusive systems (starting with health)
A new wave of protests? Many reasons to be unhappy. We wonder about the form this discomfort could take and we're worried about repressive reactions, aggrieved groups, social fragmentation and individual radicalization.
And 
... We are moderately hopeful about the 
. Lessons have been learnt from previous crises. There’s more ambition, a solid transformational project, blockages have been bypassed and there's willingness to keep the EU’s essence. That’s good. But It may not be enough.
... We are moderately hopeful about the . Lessons have been learnt from previous crises. There’s more ambition, a solid transformational project, blockages have been bypassed and there's willingness to keep the EU’s essence. That’s good. But It may not be enough.
Do you want to know more? Have a look at the full report: https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/notes_internacionals/243/the_world_in_2021_ten_issues_that_will_shape_the_international_agenda
At the end you'll find a bonus track: 100 dates (elections, summits, anniversaries) to mark in your international calendars.
At the end you'll find a bonus track: 100 dates (elections, summits, anniversaries) to mark in your international calendars.
Colleagues, media, think tanks and other organisations have published super interesting foresight reports these days. For short and sharp pieces on a wide range of relevant topics check @TheEconomist. https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-2021
Are you into peace and security? Then I'm sure you've already read the "ten conflicts to watch" by @CrisisGroup https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2021
Data, trends and excellent visualizations by @cfr https://www.cfr.org/article/visualizing-2021-trends-watch
Not exclusively about 2021. Extremely illuminating report by @MunSecConf https://securityconference.org/en/publications/msr-special-editions/stability-2020/
A classic. @EurasiaGroup and @ianbremmer top risks for 2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2021
The 10 issues to watch by @EP_ThinkTank and @EtienneBassot https://epthinktank.eu/2021/01/07/ten-issues-to-watch-in-2021/
You should also check what our colleagues from @ispionline have published: https://essay.ispionline.it/?page_id=1925
Stay tuned. The @wef will soon release its global risk report https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/global-risks-report-2021/
And if you are a foresight fan and addicted to future studies, what ifs, and scenarios, you may also be anxiously waiting for @EU_ISS @FlorenceGaub “2021: what is to come” and the online debates (22 January): https://twitter.com/EU_ISS/status/1348676694337589258
For those interested in the MENA region, don’t miss the six online discussions organized by @CarnegieMEC @mahamyahya. https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/12/16/global-renewal-what-to-expect-in-2021-event-7479
Our friends from @elOrdenMundial also published their 2021 analysis in Spanish: https://elordenmundial.com/el-mundo-en-2021/
And there may be some more that I have missed. Share them with us! In fact, why not using this thread to share your own impressions? Where do you expect change to happen? Will this be a happy new year? And for whom?
