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1. The pro EU narrative has always been that the single market is a boon for trade. This ignores multiple factors and is somewhat ruined by the fact that economic growth in the EU is sclerotic and that the U.K. has increasingly dealt elsewhere, a process now likely to accelerate. https://twitter.com/alexwitzleben/status/1349605059219353600
2. Sure, putting up tariff and non-tariff barriers will affect long standing business flows and supply chains, and it’s not helped by the lack of competence and preparation by the various authorities. But the people who should be most worried here dwell in mainland Europe.
3. Trade flows, whilst not a one way street, are significantly in one direction. It’s been easy to become complacent about this. There’s now a shock to the system and things will need re-ordering. Demand in the U.K. should stay broadly the same, but the rules have changed.
4. Just as water finds the cracks, people still want stuff at reasonable prices and businesses seek profits. The U.K. will be forced to look for a change in the status quo. The EU is not the only supplier in town. Deals elsewhere will be upgraded and put into competition.
5. I think the U.K. is in a better place than the EU. As a generalisation a lot of what we buy from elsewhere is generic and what we sell is more specialised and less easy to replicate.
6. Brexit will force a U.K. government to deal with this - no hiding behind Brussels any more and passing the buck - or they will be punished by the electorate. On the plus side we can now reorder our relationships based on our own needs.
7. There are a lot of problems with the U.K. and they won’t be easy to solve but it’s a pretty special place and we have a great range of talents and skills along with a world wide reputation for fairness, tolerance and creativity.
8. The EU is an outdated, protectionist and increasingly inept form of governance with huge issues over its role in the world, economic woes, a disaster currency, etc. The world is passing it by.
Let’s crack on
Let’s crack on
