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Thread: Originally this research started as a way to see how often winning bestball teams early round picks counted towards their score. My thought process was that the best teams crush early picks so well that their top 10 players count towards their score more then lesser teams
Turns out, not so much. What I found was that the best teams actually have their top 10 draft picks counted into the weekly score less often then lesser teams. So that led me on a merry goose chase to the findings in these next few tweets. This is 19 & 20 data for ftrax bestball
So this is a lot of data but stick with me. I took a look at all the players drafted on every team. This graph shows how actual points scored measured up against where the player was drafted. Additionally it is color coded by the final standings for the fantasy team.
As is its too noisy. But take a look at these, this is just hitters & includes a trend line for each finishing place.
On the right is the avg scoring by round for 1st, 6th, 12th place
The 1st place trend line is pretty similar to the rest they just squeezed more out every spot
On the right is the avg scoring by round for 1st, 6th, 12th place
The 1st place trend line is pretty similar to the rest they just squeezed more out every spot
The pitching side is where it gets fun. Look at these trends. Here we see a very dramatic shift. Here the first place teams get dramatically more scoring out of the bottom 2/3 of their roster. With the curve rising at a much sharper angle relative to other standings points.
So what does that mean.
-It means the "good" teams don't just rely on the studs they draft early. They are getting production all the way down the roster.
-There are no throw away picks
-Hitting is a smoother scoring curve. Even bad teams get production from late hitters.
-It means the "good" teams don't just rely on the studs they draft early. They are getting production all the way down the roster.
-There are no throw away picks
-Hitting is a smoother scoring curve. Even bad teams get production from late hitters.
Circling back to the question that got me started on this.
Good teams often are actually using their early picks less often then mediocre and bad teams. But its cause overall their getting more production from the entire roster then those other teams.
Good teams often are actually using their early picks less often then mediocre and bad teams. But its cause overall their getting more production from the entire roster then those other teams.
