I'll be tweeting some highlights from @KAErdmann's talk with @YIMBYNeoliberal. Happening now: https://www.eventbrite.com/x/yimby-neoliberal-blame-nimbys-for-the-great-recession-with-kevin-erdmann-tickets-134730421317?utm_campaign=reminder_attendees_event_starting_email&utm_medium=email&ref=eemaileventremind&utm_source=eventbrite&utm_term=eventname
In the lead up to the Great Recession, Los Angeles and New York City were building less on a per capita basis than Detroit and St. Louis. Seems bad!
How did new housing and good paying jobs come to be a bad thing? We set an artificial Malthusian limit on a handful of cities.
What went wrong in the lead up to the housing bust? Home prices skyrocketed relative to rents. We knew that. But also, rents themselves skyrocketed! "This wasn't a cycle, it was a regime shift."
"High home prices were just a symptom. The disease was high rents." High rents are associated with high home price-to-rent ratios.
Why the housing construction boom in the Sun Belt? Because these cities were absorbing housing refuges from the Wes Coast/Northeast—the housing crisis was being exported and the Sun Belt housing sector was sprinting to keep up.
"You can confidently flip the conventional wisdom [about the housing bubble] and find the truth. We built too many houses in the Sun Belt? No, that was a response to real demand." The "excess units" were from population loss in closed-access cities that needed the housing.
An absolutely mind boggling element of US housing policy is that we basically destroyed our construction industry between 2006 and 2011.
. @KAErdmann's topline takeaways: