In the lead up to the Great Recession, Los Angeles and New York City were building less on a per capita basis than Detroit and St. Louis. Seems bad!
How did new housing and good paying jobs come to be a bad thing? We set an artificial Malthusian limit on a handful of cities.
What went wrong in the lead up to the housing bust? Home prices skyrocketed relative to rents. We knew that. But also, rents themselves skyrocketed! "This wasn't a cycle, it was a regime shift."
"High home prices were just a symptom. The disease was high rents." High rents are associated with high home price-to-rent ratios.
Why the housing construction boom in the Sun Belt? Because these cities were absorbing housing refuges from the Wes Coast/Northeast—the housing crisis was being exported and the Sun Belt housing sector was sprinting to keep up.
"You can confidently flip the conventional wisdom [about the housing bubble] and find the truth. We built too many houses in the Sun Belt? No, that was a response to real demand." The "excess units" were from population loss in closed-access cities that needed the housing.
An absolutely mind boggling element of US housing policy is that we basically destroyed our construction industry between 2006 and 2011.
"We effectively made illegal the bottom half of home buying demand."
. @KAErdmann's topline takeaways:
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