After pricing its IPO at $30/share in November, $OZON closed its first day of trading +34%. It has since traded up an additional +18%, bouncing back and forth in a tight $41 - $48 range. Here is why I'm long $OZON:
$OZON has invested heavily in its fulfillment
infrastructure to solve the logistical challenges of shipping goods in Russia, and now offers next-day delivery for over 40% of the Russian population. $AMZN, $MELI, and $SE have all proven that investments in logistics pay off
COVID-19 has accelerated the growth of Russian e-commerce, and $OZON has benefited from this
shift in consumer behavior, quickly growing GMV since introducing its marketplace model in September 2018
E-commerce penetration in Russia was only
6.0% in 2019 (up from 4.3% in 2017), compared to 27.1% in China, 18.3% in the UK, and 15.2% in the US. This demonstrates that there is still tremendous growth potential for not only $OZON, but even $OZON competitors such as Wildberries
$OZON is led by a team with experience from Yandex (current CEO previously served as CEO of the Russian division of Yandex from 2014 to 2017; current CTO has experience at both Yandex and Lazada)
On an EV / Sales basis, $OZON trades at a significant discount to $MELI, $SE, $JMIA, and $PDD. Likely due to the geopolitical risks of investing in a Russia-based company that is still unprofitable, but the risk / reward proposition is very appealing
And as @saxena_puru has mentioned, with a weakening US Dollar likely to come from additional stimulus, international names are now more attractive than ever (as the value of their earnings on a US $ basis increases with a weakened US $)
While it's unlikely that $OZON will have the same meteoric rise as $MELI and $SE have had in recent months, this is a name worth having in a diversified e-commerce portfolio. GS currently has a $53 price target on the name.
You can follow @jordanelist.
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