I'd like to outline exactly just how fucked the Bears are following today's decision to not fire those two ding dongs and how I feel the next many years will be hard on us fans.

I can talk at length about how intensely unqualified Pace and (especially) Nagy are to maintain their jobs but I proceeding assuming you get that. Same goes for the priorities of idiot billionaires being in revenue over wins by a huge margin.

TLDR: they're all massive idiots

Mitch may be a bad quarterback, and perhaps on a different team he may succeed but we know that Nagy a) definitely hates him and b) refuses to play call for his strengths even remotely.

Mitch Trubisky is not coming back

Nick Foles has a really favorable contract for a back up so he's staying and likely to be the Day 1 starter, based on how I'm seeing things. First off, one must consider who free agent replacements could be.

Dak too expensive
Rivers probably staying or retiring

Then you have a long list of guys that aren't empirically better than Foles/Mitch in Dalton, Cam, Tyrod, Winston, Fitzpatrick, Brissett. Free agency isn't it.

Trades are another option, but we face not just the same dilemma of "is this guy better than the guy we have" but also additional expense. Jimmy G, Wentz, Minshew.

Ryan is out there, but comes with a 41 mil cap hit. Unless there is a favorable massive restructuring, forget him

I've been heavily scouting this draft's quarterback class and aside from the top three, the rest of the quarterbacks are not really great and will need years of seasoning before they are ready to contribute.

Sidebar: Trey Lance is extremely unimipressive, I don't get the hype

The Bears could trade the farm to snag Wilson (who I love) or Fields. Likely impossible, that would forgo the ability to draft lots of roster filler talent cheaply which is crucial because they have only 35 players under contract for 2021 and already are over the cap projection.

Barring the unforeseen (like a young cheap starter demanding a trade), the Bears QB room might include Mitch but will probably look like this:

Foles
3rd to 5th rounder (Mond, Ehrlinger, Ridder type)
young vet minimum contract developmental type (Sudfield, Kyle or Brandon Allen)

It could also look like this:

Foles
~20th pick (Mac Jones, Trey Lance)
young vet minimum contract developmental type

I'm inclined to dislike this because Jones or Lance likely not reliable starters in year one. I still got tape to watch on Jones but I still lean that way

Lastly, this possibility exists

Mitch
Foles
some unready rookie

I hope for Mitch's sake he doesn't relive more of this nightmare, he needs to get away from Nagy.

One other option remains and it is the most dangeous.

Pace and Nagy yolo it with the realization their jobs are on the line and do everything they can to get Dak or Matt Ryan hoping they fix things. Both of those guys are on offenses more talented than Chicago's and can barely break .500. This will be ruinous long term

That involves not just a massive long term and guaranteed financial commitment but also cutting key talent that would be essentially impossible to replace. Like cutting Mack and Fuller and more to get Dak, thin out one part of the team to strengthen another

All of these quarterback scenarios are discouraging, but we must also consider who the fuck will be keeping the quarterback protected and who he'll be throwing to because ARob is essentially gone.

We all recognize that Mooney good but it would be a disservice to elevate him to #1 now. Plus with the cap woes, Jimmy Graham might be cut, leaving them with even less reliable talent

So where can they get some pass catchers after seemingly only having Kmet and Mooney locked in?

Free agency pool for WR is weak. The Bears would have to overpay for far lesser than ARob talents like Corey Davis or Marvin Jones to get a bargain reliable ~70 catch guy. That or try to platoon some bargain boys like Perriman, Snead, or Demarcus Robinson. Yikes

The draft possibility exists and maaaybe they get lucky and hit another late round gem like Mooney but if they're going to invest in WR in an unspectacular WR draft pool, they'll have to use their first or second for that.

That negates early addressing QB or Oline though.

So either they invest heavily with draft capital for pass catchers for Foles & Co. to throw to -OR- they cut players beyond the expected like Hicks to sign less-than-ARob wide receivers.

All indications show that pass catching is going to be a major problem for the Bears in 2021

They might tag ARob but I think he's gonna be real pissed if they do.

The one thing that is clear that they can finagle soundly addressing the quarterback position or the wide receiver position. Not both. That seems bad, and I haven't looked at the Oline yet.

Massie's cut is inevitable w/ 2.6 mil in dead money. If they're able to keep Mustipher cheap, the interior line is set with Whitehair, Mustipher, and Daniels

Leno is not talked about enough as a huge problem and I think he needs to go, but 5+ mil is a lot to absorb in dead money

It's doable, but the replacement options are also not ideal. This is a great draft for first round tackle depth with lots of projected day one starters but it is offensive tackle and the learning curve is steep. That also forgos the ability to draft a QB or WR first. YIKES.

For offense alone, Pace has given himself an inflexibilty to address multiple glaring holes. This is what happens when you swing and miss on early picks (or imho hire a coach that ensures that). This offense can only be worse because inability to fix it's many glaring problems

You only have so many draft picks and so much $$$. I think Robert Quinn was dumped on a little unfairly but this pay a guy big bucks because I'm in win now mode has ruined the viability for improvement.

That's not even addressing how bad coaching is! Incredible stuff, really.

So if we add 35 players under contract plus 7-10 picks (if we include projected compensatory picks), the Bears at best will have 45 players under contract and still be over the cap without addressing QB, ARob or his replacement, or the O Line.

Fuck.

I know that restructuring/moving money over to bonuses exists but it would require unprecedented cap management in order to give this team the money address basic needs. The Bears are so far from having the money that it's largely assured they won't be able to address it all.

I mean, really take a moment and think about 45 players under contract and you are pressed against the cap. They still need ~10 more players and have no room.

Cutting Mack/Hicks/Fuller/Leno/Massie/Skrine also means finding their replacements extremely cheaply.

Say they cut Mack, which would be awful but give them some flexibility. They could get back maybe a second and fourth for him (based on $$ not talent obvi). How long before that pick is ready to contribute at even half a Mack level, if ever?

A real good example of this not being a successful format is what happened in Houston

They traded away the essential Hopkins for whatever fuck reason and address his absence in aggregate with a developmental guys, expensive FAs and such.

They finished 4-12.

Passing offense wasn't exactly the problem in Houston but one poorly managed over-addressing of a roster hole (LT) in Tunsil got them fucked on the cap, which made them trade Hopkins, and lose their intensely precious 3rd overall pick in a good draft.

No NFL roster is built perfectly and has no weaknesses, it's impossible. The way that Pace manages that concept is short sighted and win-now focused in such a way that created a series of circumstances wherein another Fox era style rebuild seems inevitable.

Bears fans are going to be paying dearly with forthcoming dreadful teams, the best players are either all getting older with strong shows of decline (Hicks, Mack, Bojack) or leaving (ARob).

The team isn't unfixable, and the recipe is tried and true, but does Pace recognize that?

When you're pressed up against the cap, you have to put your entire hopes with the draft picks

The key reason that the Saints have been able to right the ship after three straight years of 7-9 is the most incredible draft class in 2017, maybe the best I have ever seen, ALL HITS

Truly the stuff of dreams, I'm still in awe. When you're able to inject that much immediately-good rookie-pay-scale talent to your roster all at once, it gives you so so much flexibility. This also was following Rankins, Michael Thomas, Vonn Bell, and Oneymata the year before!

This is basically the ONLY thing that can assure the Bears success, back to back significant and powerful draft classes to offset the blunder of previously bad picks and contracts.

However, the Bears are not the Saints and don't have the stabilizing genius of Payton and Brees.

They have Matt Nagy, who is not only terrible with Xs & Os, but I argue he's already lost the locker room with the inability to produce. So even if Ryan Pace uncharacteristically hits a home run every pick in the draft, it'd have to be beyond Saints 2017 to offset Nagy

It would take a level of roster management genius I have never seen. It's not impossible I guess but to ground this back down, Pace is not good enough to do that job and will likely overreach yet again in an attempt to save his job that will ruin Bear long term success viability