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Nils Hoglander, set to make his NHL debut tonight, is an outlier, multiple times over, that continually beats the odds and he might just do it again when it comes to the NHL.
For starters, he's really small and was drafted. Only 430 5'10'' or smaller forwards have been drafted in the NHL over the past 30 years and only 91 of them were taken in the first two rounds.
Hoglander, who is widely recognized, for his offensive skill isn't a player that profiles like the small player that emerges as a bonafide stud in the NHL (e.g., Johnny Gaudreau, Theo Fleury, Marty St. Louis, Alex DeBrincat).
For reference, here's Hoglander vs. Gaudreau.
For reference, here's Hoglander vs. Gaudreau.
Small elite point producers most often have extraordinary production in their feeder league(s), early on, leading up to the NHL. When you break it all down, short superstars often have numbers and a development curve in line with top 5 picks. Hoglander doesn't.
From ages 16 to 18, while playing in men's leagues in Sweden, Hoglander has an equivalency of 10 to 19. He essentially plateaus over those years and doesn't see the big jumps we would expect of an offensive dynamo. Though he is starting to produce now in the SHL.
Hoglander is also of the older variety, born in December 2000, making him one of the oldest players of his class. This also hurts his case.
A lot of players have a profile like this at the model. Older draftees with an equivalency (standardized production) less than 20 at the time of their first eligible draft year. There has been 1,221 of these drafted in the past 30 years.
The vast majority of them never make the NHL. Only 18% of the fully developed ones made the NHL. Hoglander, assuming he sticks, looks like he's about to make the NHL. He's already beat the odds in a very big way if that's the case.
These types of players mostly develop at a glacial pace. And if they do make the NHL, it's after 5+ years of grinding their way up the ranks. What they almost never do is make the NHL soon after being drafted.
Going back to those 1,221 players that have looked like this drafted over the past 30 years, how many made the NHL (playing 20+ games) by their D+2 (second year after their first eligible draft year)? 15. 15 out of 1,221 (1.2%).
Assuming Hoglander hits roughly 20 games he will be the 12th to do so. Incredible. Even more incredible if we consider that he's very, very small. He and Denis Malgrin are the only players 5'10 or smaller in that twelve I speak of.
Hoglander, while holding a common progression in the model, has a very unique and odds defying development path. He's been an outlier his whole life and that might only continue into the NHL.
His chances of becoming a star are almost zero (based on his age and development path thus far, players that look like this almost never turn into stars) but perhaps he beats the incredible odds there as well. Never say never with Hoglander.
