Quick thread on why I think EDM will finish better than most models and pundits predict
1) Pundits underestimate how much playing with “meh” players can drag down even the best in the league. McDavid having “meh” help from Jan 1 on effected his results until Nuge got there (1/

Nuge w/ 97 to start will be huge for 97
2) McDavid was on a rehabbed knee all year and looked slower/tired by the last couple months. Fresh and healthy this year
3) Drai having his own line with reasonably good player in Yamamoto and Kahun gives EDM a good 2nd line. (2/

4) I project 97’s line at 55% GF and Drais at 52% GF. There ‘s ~32 5v5 minutes per game won
5) Turris wasn’t good last 2 years in NSH, but I can’t come up with any way of seeing him replicate Sheahan’s 31%(!!!!) GF% last year. JP could be good help there (3/

Turris' line penciled in at 45% GF

6) Wingers like Ennis, Neal and Chiasson will be fine if not above their level and penciled in on 4th line, they’ll be good. I got the 4th line being close to 50% GF (4/

7) EDM won’t miss Klefbom as much as feared. Jones looks like the real deal. Klef’s Achilles’ heel has been defensive and I don’t think Jones is a down grade there much if at all with quicker feet. (5/

8) 7th and 8th Dmen (Russell-Bouchard) don’t scare me at all if they get pressed to play 3rd pair. 2nd pair is a different story, but D-depth is good (6/

9) Koskinen is criminally under rated. Top 15 goalie by many metrics last year. Back up goalie however…….and CAR poaching Forsberg hurts a bit too (7/

10) PP will still be all world. Won’t shoot 20% again (probably) but good PPs are good PPs for years (see WSH, TBY, and EDM since Gulutzan started coaching it 2 years ago) if players and coach don’t change and they haven’t. (8/

11) PK SV% will regress, but not as much as assumed. Players had said they played a similar system to SJS where they try to force shots from certain areas. SJS had worst 5v5 SV and best PK SV% in the league last year.. (9/

EDM was tied with SJS at .906. Teams will scheme around it and it will regress, but I don’t have it going down to league average of .865. .875 may be fair to assume. We’ll see. *crosses fingers* (10/

12) So I have EDM having a better 5v5 GF% than last year. Was 47.3% last year, I got them ~51.5% this year. I also have them with a very good (if not the best) Special Teams goal differential in the league again. (11/

Goal differential drives wins and they’ll have a better goal differential per game than last year when they had the best points percentage of all Canadian teams

I have them 1st/2nd/3rd in North Division.

Might miss if too many key injuries (like Koskinen/97/29)
(12/

Here hoping that the Good Gords are willing and the creek don't rise.

GOILERS!!!

*clapclap* (13/13)