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For those who haven't picked them up on discord, a thread of the key images discussed on the latest podcast is coming up
First of all, the importance of getting in front and spending time winning. It's the most important thing in football
If we aren't spending time winning, we need to look at what is happening when the game is TIED. We have a big weakness this season plus some bad luck thrown in. Shots for/against almost identical, but the average shot quality conceded is almost 50% higher than the EPL average
Even when you take out high quality chances that would've been ruled out as offside by VAR, we are conceding 1.8 per match at all game states. that's nearly DOUBLE the level of 2018/19.
we've also made the 2nd most defensive errors in the league behind Leeds, 5 of them at 0-0
we've also made the 2nd most defensive errors in the league behind Leeds, 5 of them at 0-0
Open Play is fine in defence AND attack but there is a big problem conceding high quality chances from set plays.
Last season we only conceded 2 set play goals before the title was effectively won (Villa A, Everton H), this season it's down to less than every 3 games
This is the XG For/Against when TIED for the top sides of the last 5 seasons. The further you are towards the top right the better. LFC are currently a slightly inferior version of City 19/20 whilst City are back close to their elite levels of 17/18 and 18/19
And the average shot quality when tied. The attack is fine but just like City with counter-attacks last season, this LFC team has a vulnerability. Until we tighten up and reduce the high quality chances/sloppy mistakes a big points total won't be possible
In terms of the attack there are also issues. Mane and Salah are both at the lowest 10-game producitivity of their LFC careers. Bobby had his low point back in September. When you consider that the Bobby data includes Rodgers and Mane includes early Klopp, that's surprising
Trent also at his lowest productivity since November 2018. Robbo is seeing more of the ball than ever before this season but not increasing his output
Final chart is the 10 game rolling XG trend in the 2 main comps since the start of 18/19. This excludes the randomness of penalties for/against.
The point of clinching the title vs Palace is highest NPXG for in the whole chart with 2.33 and the 2nd highest XGD (1.48).
The point of clinching the title vs Palace is highest NPXG for in the whole chart with 2.33 and the 2nd highest XGD (1.48).
You can then see the horrible form in the dead rubbers and we haven't got the 10 game XGA below 1 since.
The first 10 games of this season we get back up to 0.82 XGD which is comparable to much of the level we saw in 2019/20
The first 10 games of this season we get back up to 0.82 XGD which is comparable to much of the level we saw in 2019/20
The defensive performance has improved very slightly since the fateful Everton match but the real story is the gradual decline of the attack
In terms of opponents, the big change has come against the bottom 13 teams (excluding top 6 + Everton).
In 20 games since Watford we have dropped points 9 times and only kept 6 clean sheets.
You have to go back 71 games (Nov 2017) to find the next 9 lots of dropped points
In 20 games since Watford we have dropped points 9 times and only kept 6 clean sheets.
You have to go back 71 games (Nov 2017) to find the next 9 lots of dropped points
In the 55 matches against the "bottom 13" between VVD's debut (Swansea A Jan 2018) and Watford Away Feb 2020, the record was:
W51 D4 L0 (zero) with 33 (thirty three) clean sheets
W51 D4 L0 (zero) with 33 (thirty three) clean sheets
So we've gone from 60% clean sheets to 30% since February
The goals conceded per game have increased from 0.51 to 1.4
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The goals conceded per game have increased from 0.51 to 1.4
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