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Alright, a CGY Flames season preview Tweet-a-thon.
The Flames had two major problems last year - the top of their roster fell down a well, with the 13-23 line becoming a liability at ES for much of the season (and the playoffs).
Their shot and chances ratios as a team also went from top of the league to middling, mostly due to a collapse in their defensive numbers. You can see that here (via @WaveIntel)
So, their scoring went down because their big guns turned to pop guns at ES, and their defence turned into a shell game, giving up way more shots and chances against.
We can guess that the team is going to tackle this issues tactically, but also in terms of new roster combinations up front. The 13-23 duo being the operative issue here - you can’t have them be drags at ES and expect to win.
From what we’ve seen so far, we can expect Lindholm/Tkachuk to be a pairing, and likely the line that sees the toughest minutes. Lindholm saw the highest % of his ice time against elite competition last year according to @PuckIQ
Tkachuk & Lindholm flourished together last year and Tkachuk is a legit heavy hitter. They may be able to take the tough sledding, and free up 13-23 for lesser matchups and more Ozone starts.
It also means the team moves Backlund into a support role, likely with more defensive responsibilities, which means more flexibility to hide Guadreau and Monahan at ES.
That also means, however, that the 13-23 line is likely to have a much worse player on the right wing to start (with apologies to Leivo, Dube, and Simon). Unless Mangiapane lands on that line, 13-23 have to pull on the rope harder. Albeit likely in easier circumstances.
The wildcards up front, are:
Can Lindholm capably centre a hard minutes line all year?
Can 13-23 rebound and carry a line at ES?
How does Dube develop (dark horse to add major punch to the depth chart with a step forward)?
Can Lindholm capably centre a hard minutes line all year?
Can 13-23 rebound and carry a line at ES?
How does Dube develop (dark horse to add major punch to the depth chart with a step forward)?
On the blue line, Flames lost one of their best skaters in Bodie and replaced him with Tanev, which is likely to be a big step back (Tanev’s result profile him as a Brouwer-type signing).
They also have to deal with an aging Giordano, who was still their best overall defender last year. Development from Andersson and Valimaki will hopefully bridge the gap.
Hanifin is still “young” at 23, but hasn’t shown much progression. He likely is what he is.
Hanifin is still “young” at 23, but hasn’t shown much progression. He likely is what he is.
Nesterov, Valimaki, and Gio’s age curve are the wildcards on the back-end. Valimaki’s dominant spin in Finland to start the year is encouraging.
Other than personnel, it may also come down to tactics. CGY favoured a dump ’n chase and centre clogging scheme in the most recent playoffs. It helped defeat a depleted Jets team, but they got completely overrun by DAL.
It also hamstrung their top line, which was already having a crisis of identity after the poor 2019 post-season showing and career worst 202 regular season 13-23.
Instead, we should hope to see something that appropriately leverages the strengths of the team’s best forwards, instead of hoping to simply buttress their weaknesses.
The goaltending should be anywhere from better to much better, but I would never put money down on a goalie bet in this league. Markstrom should be a big step forward though.
