THREAD: The Dominoes of Impeachment - Part 3

Today the US House of Representatives will impeach Donald John Trump for the second time.

Convicting Trump in the Senate trial requires the vote of 2/3 of the Senators present. There are currently 99 Senators (46 Democrat, 2 Independent and caucusing with the Democrats, and 51 Republican).

So that means that if all are present then at least 66 votes are required to convict -- at least 18 of them from Republicans.

Once Georgia certifies the victories of Warnock and Ossoff, they will be sworn in to the Senate. That will increase the number of Senators to 100, with 67 votes required to convict if all are present. The number of needed Republican votes will drop from 18 to 17.

Georgia cannot certify the vote from last week's Senate election until all the individual counties have certified their votes. The deadline for that to happen is this Friday, January 15th.

The state then has (by law) one additional week to certify the result, although it could certainly happen earlier.

After the House impeaches Trump today, Pelosi will have to decide when to send the articles of impeachment over to the Senate.

The Senate is in recess and normally would not convene again until next Tuesday, January 19, the day before Trump's term will end. However, if both McConnell and Schumer agree, the Senate could be called back earlier to hold a trial, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

Yesterday McConnell indicated that he was open to considering the idea. Pelosi likely won't send over the articles of impeachment however, unless she feels certain that the 18 Republican votes needed to convict Trump will materialize.

She certainly doesn't want a quick trial to happen in which Trump is again acquitted. Convicting Trump would require McConnell to publicly support it happening, and him convincing Pelosi that he can muster the votes for a conviction.

McConnell has a choice... he can support and facilitate a very quick trial right now under his majority leadership, one that allows the Republican party to put country ahead of party/Trump. Or, he can punt on it to the next administration.

If McConnell declines to hold the trial now, or cannot promise to muster the votes needed to convict, Pelosi will send the articles of impeachment to the Senate once Biden is President and Schumer is majority leader.

She could potentially wait for a considerable while, even until next year, after more facts are known and evidence is available that will be embarrassing to the Republican party.

(There is a possibility that Trump might challenge the legality that the Senate can hold a trial after he is out of office, and the Supreme Court would be called upon to make a decision.)

Such a trial would be considerably longer and more embarrassing to the Republican party, with a national airing of evidence and witnesses showing the complicity of Republican members of Congress who have aided and abetted sedition and insurrection.

The Republican members of Congress are being afforded a second chance to act as patriots, after all of them except Mitt Romney betrayed America and their oaths of office in the first impeachment vote and trial a year ago.

The Senate trial may potentially be happening concurrent with groups of organized seditionists supporting armed riots and uprisings in Washington, DC along with all 50 state capitals over the next week.

Additional note: A quick trial has the additional benefit of keeping Trump occupied with things other than burning and looting and trying to end the world during the final week of his term.

I don't know what will happen. But the next week is going to be wild.

6 days, 22 hours, 59 minutes to go.

--Cliff