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There's a 1970s style energy crisis playing out in Japan, Korea & China with hardly any attention from rest of the world. Gas & coal supply shortages, spikes in demand from harsh winter & rationing...but there are deeper roots. @JKempEnergy sets out analytical framework. https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1349358099392573446
2/ Mindblowing that one reason energy use & prices are spiking in E Asia is Covid Ventilation. Offices, homes etc opening windows to prevent buildup of virus aerosols while also blasting heat during freezing winter. Thread on crisis https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1348344285914161152 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/28/national/pandemic-restaurants-ventilation/
3/ My kingdom for an LNG tanker. An unprecedented shortage of liquefied natural gas tankers has made them the most expensive ships ever hired to ferry commodities. Excellent reporting on E Asian energy crisis by @SStapczynski @a_shiryaevskaya https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/winter-lng-boom-means-the-most-expensive-cargo-ships-in-history
4/ Electricity utilities in E Asia gambled that Covid would reduce demand so didn't stockpile enough during winter. The opposite happened. Now, a wave of rationing in China, Japan & Korea as companies beg customers to turn electricity off but keep heat on. https://www.ft.com/content/7a98f9f3-3195-4f64-ba38-377c2f8ba1f3
5/ In 1970s crisis, US/Europe shut down all oil-powered electric plants & built 100s of domestic coal plants. In E Asian 2021 crisis, Japan's supply crunch is so bad that utilities starts to run coal plants using fuel-oil instead. A boost for oil producers https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1349339724553588736
6/ Proximal cause of E Asia energy crisis is freezing weather. Heating needs scale non-linearly w each colder degree. Beijing recorded its lowest temps since 1966, while temps were on average ~6°C below 10-year seasonal norm during January in Seoul & Tokyo https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-energy-kemp-column/column-big-freeze-exposes-asias-underlying-energy-crisi-kemp-idUSKBN29J1WF
7/ The polar vortex that brought Arctic weather & roiled E Asian energy markets is about to hit Europe. Becalmed conditions are expected to stifle Europe’s wind generation & nuclear plant outages on supply side combined w demand spike from chill. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/cold-calm-arctic-weather-set-to-rattle-europe-energy-markets?sref=jhllEgMq
8/ What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. 2020 saw extreme Arctic circle heat, raging wildfires, warming oceans, disappearing sea ice...
Now, the polar vortex is splitting in two & weeks of wild winter weather in E Asia & Europe. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/?tid=ss_tw
Now, the polar vortex is splitting in two & weeks of wild winter weather in E Asia & Europe. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/?tid=ss_tw
9/ There's a pretty pentagonal Rossby wave in the jet stream circling the Northern hemisphere at 250 hPa right now. Wild winter weather & elecricity grid outages for everyone! https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-245.26,94.13,332 https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1194307795773902848
10/ Global warming =>Volatile weather.'From Japan to Pakistan & from France to China, electricity & natural gas market comes under enormous tension strain this winter' @rachelmorison
More stories connecting dots now that Pandemic made us see global system? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/bitter-cold-brings-chaos-as-global-energy-systems-show-strain?sref=5dj0X2VO
More stories connecting dots now that Pandemic made us see global system? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/bitter-cold-brings-chaos-as-global-energy-systems-show-strain?sref=5dj0X2VO
11/ We broke the Arctic. Cold blast sweeping Northern hemisphere is causing chaos in energy markets
France's utility asks customers to delay laundry
Japan pleads to consumers to lower usage
China curbs power supplies to industries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/bitter-cold-brings-chaos-as-global-energy-systems-show-strain?sref=DLVyDcXJ https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1349718492036149248
France's utility asks customers to delay laundry
Japan pleads to consumers to lower usage
China curbs power supplies to industries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/bitter-cold-brings-chaos-as-global-energy-systems-show-strain?sref=DLVyDcXJ https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1349718492036149248
12/ Japan's power crunch this winter has helped to shift public debate about nuclear power, its energy minister told the FT. Nuclear had been replaced by gas & coal after Fukushima.
“I’m trying to persuade everybody that in the end we need nuclear power” https://www.ft.com/content/47b189de-bb5e-409b-87b9-86405661fc03
“I’m trying to persuade everybody that in the end we need nuclear power” https://www.ft.com/content/47b189de-bb5e-409b-87b9-86405661fc03
13/ E Asian energy crisis gets a 7.1 mag quake as millions go without power
"Thermal Plants Shutdown Following Japan Quake
About 7 gigawatts worth of gas/coal-fired power capacity has been shut for maintenance following the quake in Fukushima prefecture" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/japan-hit-by-7-1-magnitude-earthquake-off-fukushima
"Thermal Plants Shutdown Following Japan Quake
About 7 gigawatts worth of gas/coal-fired power capacity has been shut for maintenance following the quake in Fukushima prefecture" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/japan-hit-by-7-1-magnitude-earthquake-off-fukushima
14 / We broke the Arctic. Cold blast sweeping N hemisphere causing chaos in energy markets
France's utility asks customers to delay laundry
Japan pleads to consumers to lower usage
The US is suffering a bitter cold snap; gas prices soar & pipes burst. https://twitter.com/NOAANCEIclimate/status/1360275006643724288
France's utility asks customers to delay laundry
Japan pleads to consumers to lower usage
The US is suffering a bitter cold snap; gas prices soar & pipes burst. https://twitter.com/NOAANCEIclimate/status/1360275006643724288
14 / Respect Japan's engineering & infrastructure planners who have earthquake proofed the country. A 7.2 EQ just shaken off & everything up & running in a day. Gas grids get automatically turned off so no fires from line breaks;buildings sway, not fall... https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1360775231531479042
14 / Energy crisis in Texas after winter storm. Governor issues disaster declaration for every county. #TexasFreeze
What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic! Frozen pipes, rationing & outages this week as demand >supply https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-14/deep-freeze-sends-gas-soaring-to-600-over-the-long-u-s-weekend https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1360578655609618440
What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic! Frozen pipes, rationing & outages this week as demand >supply https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-14/deep-freeze-sends-gas-soaring-to-600-over-the-long-u-s-weekend https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1360578655609618440
15/ Unbelievable spike in energy demand with the Arctic reaching down to Texas, as everyone turns on their electric heaters, all at once! Texas at this moment of climate crisis is using 6 TIMES more power (~70 GW) than all 200 million ppl in Nigeria. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1361074490608934912
16/ It should be like bringing coal to Newcastle, but the world's most energy rich region - Texas is US's top oil producer, Gas producer AND its top Wind producer - cannot get enough electricity to meet heating demand in Climate Crisis. Electricity prices spike over $6,000/MWh!
17/ Fossil fuel backers cite its 'baseload' reliability opposed to fickle renewables. But reliability isn't a property of fuels but of state, society & market *systems*. In climate crisis, Half of Texas' gas power plants are knocked out & prioritize heat https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361348544154664961
18/ Millions w/out power during dangerous climate crisis in US. Texas grid & leaky homes built to handle summer AC loads, not winter peaks when a broken Polar vortex brings Arctic freezing weather down south! Excellent explainer @joshdr83 @Caitlin0903 https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuarhodes/2021/02/14/valentines-day-giving-the-texas-electric-grid-the-cold-shoulder/?sh=751b386f740c
19/ For whats happening in Texas crisis follow @ERCOT_ISO @joshdr83 @emilygrubert @JesseJenkins @cohan_ds. Grateful to #energytwitter where experts & soln oriented ppl quickly refute anti-renewables misinformation coming from places like WSJ/reuters etc https://twitter.com/KetanJ0/status/1361313265972822019
20/ What happens when 20thC infrastructure meets 21stC Climate: Gas, power, water lines, oil wells have frozen & are breaking down because tiny components like these are outside their design tolerance. Threads like these make physicists go weak-kneed! https://twitter.com/MarkTomasovic/status/1361309953097691138
21/ 5 million ppl in US take turns plunged into dark& freeze to avoid total grid collapse
Old civil engineers quip "Infrastructure is like relationships. You don't think about it when things are going well; when things go badly, you think of nothing else" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/winter-s-fury-unleashes-brutal-cold-over-u-s-with-more-to-come?srnd=premium&sref=5dj0X2VO
Old civil engineers quip "Infrastructure is like relationships. You don't think about it when things are going well; when things go badly, you think of nothing else" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/winter-s-fury-unleashes-brutal-cold-over-u-s-with-more-to-come?srnd=premium&sref=5dj0X2VO
22/Biden has a popular mandate to invest $2000 billion in clean energy grid https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/
"[He] needs to go to Texas & give a fire & brimstone speech about how we need to rebuild our grid &anyone who thinks otherwise is anti American"- @BuddyYakov https://twitter.com/DeeJay_Cardenas/status/1361657760979427329
"[He] needs to go to Texas & give a fire & brimstone speech about how we need to rebuild our grid &anyone who thinks otherwise is anti American"- @BuddyYakov https://twitter.com/DeeJay_Cardenas/status/1361657760979427329
23/ World's top Oil producing region-Permian Basin in Texas-is going dark thanks to #climatechange induced weather.
1 of 5 Great Dying events in
history: Permian extinction
That both are named after region in Siberia combusting in Arctic heat ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/blizzard-cuts-u-s-oil-output-by-over-2-million-barrels-a-day
1 of 5 Great Dying events in
history: Permian extinctionThat both are named after region in Siberia combusting in Arctic heat ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/blizzard-cuts-u-s-oil-output-by-over-2-million-barrels-a-day
24/ Can count on WSJ to blame renewables. Ed pg on TX energy crisis:"The power grid is becoming less reliable due to growing reliance on wind & solar, which can’t provide power 24 hours a day, 7 days a week."
Never let Facts
get in way of Fossil Chaos: https://twitter.com/ctraywick/status/1361715146176024578
Never let Facts
get in way of Fossil Chaos: https://twitter.com/ctraywick/status/1361715146176024578
25/ Lucky that Americans elected a president with the most votes in history to quickly pass bills & invest Trillions to make a modern clean grid that doesnt catastrophically fail in 21stC!! #ClimateChanged,now #SystemChange. @emilygrubert @JesseJenkins https://twitter.com/MichaelWWara/status/1361758113855016960
26/ Extreme weather will become more frequent & WHACK our (often politically invisible) infrastructure harder. Its deaths & blackouts in Texas today but every country must modernize grids to handle hotter heatwaves,more frigid cold & stronger hurricanes https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2021-02-16/texas-blackouts-california-climate-change
27/ Texas had a destabilized Polar Vortex induced Arctic blast in 2011. Federal & state officials warned it needed to heat gas pipes, insulate control panels & invest $ to winterize grid
That a catastrophic failure happened again in a decade is negligence https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/texas-was-warned-a-decade-ago-its-grid-was-unprepared-for-cold?sref=VxZxfD2Y
That a catastrophic failure happened again in a decade is negligence https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/texas-was-warned-a-decade-ago-its-grid-was-unprepared-for-cold?sref=VxZxfD2Y
