This thread has led to some disagreement. Does saying this stress some students out? Probably, but it does students no favors to obscure the standard. Don’t hide the hidden curriculum. https://twitter.com/anthonyleezhang/status/1349005534876356614

I bet that these days most people who land US tenure-track econ jobs have 3 papers posted by the job market. (Exceptions for ‘big paper’ fields like IO and development.)

This is doubly true for students not from top 5 schools, who need the additional signal and often even have R&Rs at field journals. ( @pauljhealy has some great slides on this: https://healy.econ.ohio-state.edu/papers/PJsAdviceLecture.pdf )

Many incoming PhD students don’t know what a successful job market package looks like, especially if they don’t have academic parents. Being explicit about this levels the playing field.

Should 1st year students make an explicit schedule for how to hit the target? Probably not, IMO. Research progress is random, sometimes fast and sometimes slow. But it’s good to be aware that, roughly, you want to use your time in grad school to write a portfolio of 3-4 papers.