1. NSA A. Doval in Kabul in 2021 reminds me of former-R&AW chief A.K. Verma’s visit in ‘88. He was sent by R. Gandhi to assess the ‘sustainability’ of the Najibullah regime. Verma returned upbeat: (paraphrasing) “w/ Soviet support, Najib will remain in power for years”. https://twitter.com/nscafghan/status/1349298366975537154

2. Najib did last *exactly* till Soviet aid poured in, & then was ousted in ‘92. Today, N. Modi must be asking the same ques. from Doval about the Ghani govt. (incl. intra-govt. allies & adversaries alike): ‘how long can they last?’.

3. Unlike ‘88, when few foresaw the Soviet collapse (even though, retrospectively, there were indicators for the same), no one is likely to bank upon ongoing U.S. involvement in, or substantial support for, Kabul in the coming months (D.C. has its own literal battles to fight).

4. In late-80s, India opened secret channels w/ the Mujahideen & found surprising convergence of interest. Now, despite many (half-hearted?) attempts by both sides, neither India nor Taliban are able to find serious common ground. This may change, but it won’t be easy or sudden.

5. So, the one aspect that is becoming clearer: India is prepping for a long —ongoing— fight in support of its allies in Af (w/o boots on the ground). More than most countries, N. Delhi has a critical stake in securing the ‘few gains’ of the last 20-years. But will it succeed?

6. This thread by @asfandyarmir offers a good overview of the hectic activity between N. Delhi & Kabul in these previous months. Let me reiterate, it is easy to discount India is from Afghanistan (& for good reason). But this *might* change in the coming months. https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1348806069837987841