Another slightly long thread, this time on excess mortality. Lockdown-sceptics have claimed there is no excess mortality due to Covid. But today we see excess mortality now exceeds any point since the 1940s...

Inevitably, the lockdown-sceptics are contesting these figures, and pointing to other years with higher raw excess mortality numbers. And again, they’re deliberately distorting the truth...

The base figures are unambiguous. Mortality is higher than at any time than over the past 80 years. But you can’t just take that base figure. You have to adjust for increases in population. And when you do that, it’s true there are several years with higher levels of mortality...

But again, you can’t simply take that raw figure. Because over the past century the trend in mortality has – for obvious reasons – been consistently downwards. So you again have to adjust for that downward trend.

And when you do this – as Sky did by employing actuaries – it shows we are now experiencing higher mortality than at any point since 1918. Other estimates point to higher mortality than since the 1940s...

But here’s the crucial thing. The lockdown-sceptics know this. They're peddling deliberate misinformation to support a false narrative. Which is why, as I say, the distinction between them and the Covid-deniers is basically meaningless.