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This just out in @ScienceMagazine getting lots of traction, including a write-up in @nytimes by @apoorva_nyc for good reason.
Lots of interesting nuggets to mull over...1/n
Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522
Lots of interesting nuggets to mull over...1/n
Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522
2/n
We _already know_ that common cold coronavirus *sterilising immunity* (protection from infection) is short lived due to 'challenge' studies in UK decades ago. Authors assume same for SARS-CoV2.
BUT: re-infection results in *mild disease* and shorter transmission window...
We _already know_ that common cold coronavirus *sterilising immunity* (protection from infection) is short lived due to 'challenge' studies in UK decades ago. Authors assume same for SARS-CoV2.
BUT: re-infection results in *mild disease* and shorter transmission window...
3/n
Upshot: almost everyone has been infected by all 4 common cold CoVs by age 15. This is in part due to transmission from adults to kids, but adults don't get so sick themselves. Older people get infected, but don't get ill.
Upshot: almost everyone has been infected by all 4 common cold CoVs by age 15. This is in part due to transmission from adults to kids, but adults don't get so sick themselves. Older people get infected, but don't get ill.
4/n
Authors say that with *unmitigated* pandemic, within _ a few years_ SARS-CoV2 would be endemic, and symptomatic+ disease only in kids..but not dangerous in kids (vast majority).
Hence headline: Covid will become 5th common cold coronvirus.
BUT...
Authors say that with *unmitigated* pandemic, within _ a few years_ SARS-CoV2 would be endemic, and symptomatic+ disease only in kids..but not dangerous in kids (vast majority).
Hence headline: Covid will become 5th common cold coronvirus.
BUT...
5/n
Some questions remain:
a) Given pandemic precautions, how long to endemicity?
b) Will vaccines induce similar low-pathogenic infection (which will be first infection, but not first immune recognition), especially in later life?
Some questions remain:
a) Given pandemic precautions, how long to endemicity?
b) Will vaccines induce similar low-pathogenic infection (which will be first infection, but not first immune recognition), especially in later life?
6/n
c) frequent re-infection may underline the decreasing pathogenicity: what will vaccination do?
d) should we NOT vaccinate kids...knowing natural infection in kids is mild, and more likely (assuming hypothesis of authors correct???) to induce milder re-infection later?
fin
c) frequent re-infection may underline the decreasing pathogenicity: what will vaccination do?
d) should we NOT vaccinate kids...knowing natural infection in kids is mild, and more likely (assuming hypothesis of authors correct???) to induce milder re-infection later?
fin
