Looking at hospital data, there's something concerning happening in America's ICUs
There are 27,000 COVID patients in ICUs right now
On October 2, there were 7,000
And in order to accommodate the increase, hospitals are reducing access of non-COVID patients to ICU care
Thread
There are 27,000 COVID patients in ICUs right now
On October 2, there were 7,000
And in order to accommodate the increase, hospitals are reducing access of non-COVID patients to ICU care
Thread
So let’s talk data, hospitalizations, & rationing
Think like a hospital leader facing a surge of COVID patients
What do you do?
First, as # of COVID patients starts to spike, you expand capacity
You convert ORs and anesthesia units to ICUs
You open up field hospitals
2/10
Think like a hospital leader facing a surge of COVID patients
What do you do?
First, as # of COVID patients starts to spike, you expand capacity
You convert ORs and anesthesia units to ICUs
You open up field hospitals
2/10
But what if surge continues?
At some point you can’t expand further – you're running out of staff
So you tell your doctors & nurses: Hey, ICU is full
Implicit message: slow down ICU admissions
As ICUs fill w COVID pts, ability of non-COVID pts to get ICU care diminishes
3/10
At some point you can’t expand further – you're running out of staff
So you tell your doctors & nurses: Hey, ICU is full
Implicit message: slow down ICU admissions
As ICUs fill w COVID pts, ability of non-COVID pts to get ICU care diminishes
3/10
So let’s look at data from HHS Protect.
Graph shows
Weekly ICU capacity (blue)
Weekly census of COVID patients (gray)
Weekly census of non-COVID pts (orange)
Why focus on ICU? Because obviously where sickest patients are
And failing to get ICU care when you need it is bad
Graph shows
Weekly ICU capacity (blue)
Weekly census of COVID patients (gray)
Weekly census of non-COVID pts (orange)
Why focus on ICU? Because obviously where sickest patients are
And failing to get ICU care when you need it is bad
On October 2, we had in US:
78K ICU beds
8K COVID ICU patients
48K non-COVID ICU pts
As COVID pts rise through October, hospitals add capacity
In Nov/Dec, COVID pts in ICUs more than double
Hospitals add just a few more beds (hitting capacity constraints)
4/10
78K ICU beds
8K COVID ICU patients
48K non-COVID ICU pts
As COVID pts rise through October, hospitals add capacity
In Nov/Dec, COVID pts in ICUs more than double
Hospitals add just a few more beds (hitting capacity constraints)
4/10
So how do hospitals manage? By reducing Non-COVID pts
By January 1, we have
86K ICU beds (up from 78K)
27K COVID pts in ICU (up from 8K)
39K non-COVID pts in ICU (down from 48K)
Imagine a patient with moderate to severe lung disease or stroke
5/10
By January 1, we have
86K ICU beds (up from 78K)
27K COVID pts in ICU (up from 8K)
39K non-COVID pts in ICU (down from 48K)
Imagine a patient with moderate to severe lung disease or stroke
5/10
In October, they would have gone to the ICU
By December, many such patients aren’t getting ICU care
But let’s be clear, they would be better in the ICU
But ICUs are full. So hospitals forced to ration
But let's look at some states where picture clearer
By December, many such patients aren’t getting ICU care
But let’s be clear, they would be better in the ICU
But ICUs are full. So hospitals forced to ration
But let's look at some states where picture clearer
Here’s Arizona
From October 2 --> January 1:
ICU capacity up 50%
COVID patients in ICU up 1250% (75 to 1011)
Non-COVID patients down 14%
By January 1, more COVID patients than non-COVID pts in ICUs
From October 2 --> January 1:
ICU capacity up 50%
COVID patients in ICU up 1250% (75 to 1011)
Non-COVID patients down 14%
By January 1, more COVID patients than non-COVID pts in ICUs
And California
October 2 --> January 1:
ICU capacity up 22%
COVID patients in ICU up 829% (from 492 to 4569)
Non-COVID patients down 30%
More COVID pts in ICUs than non-COVID patients
October 2 --> January 1:
ICU capacity up 22%
COVID patients in ICU up 829% (from 492 to 4569)
Non-COVID patients down 30%
More COVID pts in ICUs than non-COVID patients
And Texas
Where again, about half of all ICU beds are occupied with COVID patients
And # of non-COVID patients has fallen about 20% to accommodate surge of COVID patients
Where again, about half of all ICU beds are occupied with COVID patients
And # of non-COVID patients has fallen about 20% to accommodate surge of COVID patients
So that’s where we are
When you hear disinformation spreaders say hospitals have plenty of room...they don’t
If they had plenty of room, they wouldn’t cut back on ICU care for non-COVID patients
Reduced access to ICU care for non-COVID pts despite increased capacity
10/11
When you hear disinformation spreaders say hospitals have plenty of room...they don’t
If they had plenty of room, they wouldn’t cut back on ICU care for non-COVID patients
Reduced access to ICU care for non-COVID pts despite increased capacity
10/11
Bottom line is this
COVID is directly killing 3K-4K people every day
It is also filling up ICUs across the nation, particularly in hot spots
This appears to be reducing access to ICU care for sick non-COVID patients
11/12
COVID is directly killing 3K-4K people every day
It is also filling up ICUs across the nation, particularly in hot spots
This appears to be reducing access to ICU care for sick non-COVID patients
11/12
Years from now, careful analysis will likely find that during this time, sick people without COVID in hot spots died at much higher rates
That's what happens when hospitals become strained
Their deaths won’t count as a COVID-related deaths
But may be, it should
Fin
That's what happens when hospitals become strained
Their deaths won’t count as a COVID-related deaths
But may be, it should
Fin