Punchbowl PM: Impeachment earthquake

the @jmartNYT/ @maggieNYT McConnell scoop — which NO ONE in Senate GOP leadership is pushing back on — coupled with @Liz_Cheney for impeachment changes the political dynamics in a significant way.

BTW: After forgoing a Senate run and stumbling through a few unforced political blunders, many wondered whether Cheney was toast. But she has now re-emerged as a leading voice in calling out Trump -- even as the rest of her leadership remains silent.

Let's break down what this all means:

Cover. McConnell and Cheney's decisions give political cover to Republicans who are considering voting to impeach Trump.

Split. This represents one of the deepest and most significant internal chasms in the GOP during the Trump era. Cheney has put herself in direct conflict with Kevin McCarthy, the top House Republican, who has said he's opposed to impeachment.

Guessing game. We still believe between 10 and 20 House Republicans will vote to impeach Trump. The Senate is a complete unknown at this point. McConnell hasn't said anything publicly, although his office is not at all pushing back on the NYT's terrific report.

The politics are tricky for McConnell and Senate Rs. McConnell knows better than anyone that many of his colleagues come from states where Trump remains very popular. But the leadership believes Trump cost the party the Senate majority and fomented an insurrection in the Capitol.