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If this pandemic teaches anything to countries with the worst health & economic outcomes I hope it’s that early action is always best.
>90% of damage done due to late action. This is why UK just as bad as USA even though UK’s done more ‘lockdown’.
1/11
>90% of damage done due to late action. This is why UK just as bad as USA even though UK’s done more ‘lockdown’.
1/11
As Mike Ryan of WHO said early on (March 13th): “Be fast, have no regrets” “The greatest error is not to move”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=AqRHH6e-y6I
2/11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=AqRHH6e-y6I
2/11
Exponential growth is remorseless & does not negotiate. If you are late to act you will always lose.
3/11
3/11
If you allow epidemic to double in size by delaying action by a few days you double the morbidity, hospitalisations & deaths.
If your interventions can then only halve the epidemic every few weeks then they cost many times more than they would have if done without delay.
4/11
If your interventions can then only halve the epidemic every few weeks then they cost many times more than they would have if done without delay.
4/11
Procrastination, vacillation, dither & delay, (driven by incompetence & corruption) have cost the UK dearly.
https://twitter.com/timcolbourn/status/1344628812131266560?s=20
5/11
https://twitter.com/timcolbourn/status/1344628812131266560?s=20
5/11
Countries with worse health outcomes are also suffering worse economic outcomes. These countries have acted too slowly & have never been ahead of the virus, unlike those who acted quickly and have low death & economic tolls.
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1347465566525689859?s=20
6/11
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1347465566525689859?s=20
6/11
Excess deaths in the UK are tragically high & given current trajectory the 2020 toll may be only half the final total (2021 may be just as bad)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693
7/11
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693
7/11
Richard Murray, King’s Fund from above article: "In a pandemic, mistakes cost lives. Decisions to enter lockdown have consistently come late, with the government failing to learn from past mistakes or the experiences of other countries.“
8/11
8/11
Border controls & monitored hotel quarantine, Find-test-trace-isolate-*support*, face masks, focus on indoor spread & ventilation (virus is airborne) & only then if outbreak(s) not suppressed: *early* (& therefore short) lockdown, lifted when other measures keep virus down.
9/11
9/11
The UK is experiencing the worst of what delayed action means for health care & health: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/12/overwhelmed-nhs-covid-britain-hospitals
& due to lag from infection to hospitalisation it will get still worse before it gets better.
10/11
& due to lag from infection to hospitalisation it will get still worse before it gets better.
10/11
Keen to come back to this thread after the pandemic. Whilst it’s clear to me (& I think most people?) that early action is the deciding factor, its relative importance in historical accounts will be interesting to see.
11/11
11/11