one of the things that people on here don't understand about politics is that things don't change in linear fashion. most politicians want to be where most people are, and not get there early or late, so when a consensus starts to form, it can crystallize overnight.

that's why ideas that start on the fringes of a caucus, like "let's impeach trump" or "let's decertify the electoral college," will suddenly be embraced by huge numbers of elected overnight. and it's the source of massive uncertainty in political outcomes

ideas can seem fringey, and then, in the space of days or hours, become universal or inevitable. if there's the sense that momentum is moving a particular way, more politicians will jump on board, increasing the momentum, causing more to jump on board... a positive feedback loop.

positive feedback loops make for really unstable and chaotic systems that are basically unpredictable. which is why the hari-seldon-esque notion that you can always forecast events by examining underlying factors is wrong, wrong, wrong. you'll lose to randomness every time.

right! a staid, median-vote theory of congress says $2000 checks are impossible because Manchin hates it. but in reality the huge Dem consensus around the idea forced Manchin on board. https://twitter.com/jesskcoleman/status/1349055435802877955

the problem is that Democrats have built their strategies and platforms for decades around that incorrect median-vote model of Congress, assuming that they both they, and the other side, face clear, immovable constraints. believing that, they venture little, and win even less.