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Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?
Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.
[THREAD]
Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.
[THREAD]
A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.
We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R
); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.
We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R
); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.
First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct explainer https://www.facebook.com/Dartmouth/videos/818844808970511/
Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.
These include...
These include...
...detailed twitter threads by @HarknessKristen... https://twitter.com/HarknessKristen/status/1347280872882511872
They also include this @washingtonpost article that quotes @naunihalpublic & @esdebruin https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/this-was-nocoup-but-it-comes-far-tooclose/2021/01/07/f4bb3ef2-50f4-11eb-a1f5-fdaf28cfca90_story.html
Speaking of @esdebruin, she wrote an earlier thread that also details conditions for considering an event to be a coup https://twitter.com/esdebruin/status/1325993563415597057
And then there is the pedantry of @smsaideman 
https://saideman.blogspot.com/2021/01/worst-day-in-us-transition-history-post.html
https://saideman.blogspot.com/2021/01/worst-day-in-us-transition-history-post.html
Third, I'll the give the students articles that make the case for this event BEING a coup.
Those include...
Those include...
... @profmusgrave's @ForeignPolicy piece... https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/06/coup-america-capitol-electoral-college-2020-election/
... @JHWeissmann pointing to the work of the Cline Center... https://twitter.com/JHWeissmann/status/1346948370124836865
... and @dhnexon's blog post (though his says it's BOTH a coup and an insurrection) https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/01/would-a-coup-by-any-other-name-smell-so-wrong
Third, the students will look at some of the recent coup data projects to understand the coding rules that scholars use to create "coup attempt" datasets.
These include...
These include...
...the Powell & Thyne data on coups & coup attempts...
https://www.jonathanmpowell.com/coup-detat-dataset.html
https://www.jonathanmpowell.com/coup-detat-dataset.html
...The Cline Center data on coups...
https://clinecenter.illinois.edu/project/research-themes/democracy-and-development/coup-detat-project-cdp
https://clinecenter.illinois.edu/project/research-themes/democracy-and-development/coup-detat-project-cdp
... and Chapter 3 of @naunihalpublic's book. https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/seizing-power
Fourth, I'll ask the students to answer this question:
"based on what you read and based on the coding criteria used in the datasets you explored, should the event of Jan 6 be included as an observation in a coup attempt dataset?"
"based on what you read and based on the coding criteria used in the datasets you explored, should the event of Jan 6 be included as an observation in a coup attempt dataset?"
I'm VERY curious to see how the students respond. I'll report the findings soon!
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Addendum: The students could consider "self-coup", as Fiona Hill argues here (which is also a category in the Cline Database) https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/11/capitol-riot-self-coup-trump-fiona-hill-457549
@ProfVarshney also discusses the event as a "self coup" https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/us-capitol-hill-siege-donald-trump-election-joe-biden-7138871/
